dmp: It is clear that the move will disconfirm either (1) the Elliot wave guys (Shepler, Favors) or (2) the more traditional chart readers (e.g., dowguru and those who see a bearish, risiging wedge).
I can't speak for the Elliot Wave folks, but I don't think that all wavers have the same call. Ord Oracle has a must hold number of approx 1354 on the SPX Futures for wave whatever and is expecting that to hold for the top of this first retrace of a bear market. (I believe I have that right...<g>)
I don't follow any "I get paid for my stuff" gurus, so I only see what you guys post on this thread. If my formation and indicator reads on the Market are negated by a continuation of this rally, it will NOT dis-confirm my chart analysis, just "this" read.
If you have been following my market expectations since I started posting on SI, my analysis has called (not to the day but some were pretty close) the major trend changes in the Market for well over a year. Of course, nothing is 100% so if I am wrong, I miss one. But it does not "dis-comfirm" my methods.
I can assure you I use my methods a heck of a lot more than I post on the MDA Thread. I use them on an intraday basis regularly to time myself in and out of day trades, swing trades and investments. I am not always right, but coupled with the discipline I follow (my nine rules), I have consistently done well.
I am primarily a self-taught technical analyst. I have read a few software manuals that included some basic TA, that came with the investment programs I have purchased over the years. And, I have read a Prector book on Elliot Wave. I did join the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in the mid-eighties and stayed a member briefly into the nineties. I found their insight very helpful. I formulated my own techniques from there.
I have run many optimization tests on many technical techniques. I came to the conclusion that none of them worked as a stand-alone tool. And, very few technical analysis techniques are worth using. I found no technique that could come even close to a good percentage at predicting the magnitude of moves. That is why I do not do magnitude, I can't! The best I can do is identify behavior patterns and note the possibility that they will trigger actions, some stronger than others. Behavior/reaction analysis is the basis for my trend lines, formations and support/resistance price action areas.
I did find a small group of more traditional techniques that coupled with my own indicators scores a high success percentage. One of my secrets is to NOT marry a read or expectation. Nothing is 100% and being prepared to reverse one's stance as soon as it becomes obvious it is wrong is the only smart thing to do.
In addition, I believe that the big boys use these behavior patterns and trigger points to manipulate investors. As more and more folks learn to read chart formations and trend line (investor behavior patterns) the big boys use these formations and trend lines against them as the manipulators watch these formations and trend lines as well. However, the secret is to spot when it is a manipulation move and when it is not. Discerning the intent of the big boys, is indeed the single best method to calling the Market. That is not easy, but it is doable some of the time.
Richard Ney first turned me onto market manipulation in the mid-eighties. He had his technique of spotting the manipulation, but the timing was most often ahead of the actual move. I set out to develop a system that would do both. I believe I have found some techniques I developed that are highly reliable. Those indicators I will never make public, it is just not prudent to do so.
The secret is finding and using what works best for you, however, NEVER SUBSTITUTE A TOOL FOR EXPERIENCE, always paper trade a new tool and then start with small actual trades and then gradually increase your exposure.
My final word is that I may be wrong this time, if so, I will not change my analysis techniques, it is about trusting the percentages.
Sorry, Dennis....I started rambling...and used this opportunity to make an open post...<g>
Good trading all...
Regards,
LG |
