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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9186)10/9/1999 5:24:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
** A Look at the Sentiment Numbers **

Although there has been an improvement in the sentiment numbers as seen in the bulls as a percentage of bulls plus bears, during the previous cycle of interest hikes in 1994 it was not unusual to see bearish sentiment. There was bearish sentiment practically all year. In October of 1994 right before the bottom investment sentiment was such that 69% of advisors were either bearish or expecting a correction. Today we are at 59%. We still got a correction in the Fall of 1994 even with these bearish numbers. The key as I see it was that the ten day put/call numbers were much higher in 1994 than they are now peaking at 1.00 plus back then. Now I am not calling for those kind of numbers necessarily but the current reading of a tad over .60 for the past few weeks reflects market complacency IMO and is suggestive that we have not made a bottom yet.

See:

decisionpoint.com
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