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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 101.61+2.8%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: TST who wrote (31879)10/9/1999 6:38:00 PM
From: grok  Read Replies (2) of 93625
 
RE: <kZ, as I see it you are making three points above. 1st, Rambus technology for PC application is not a good one.>

I believe Rambus is not appropriate technology for the PC industry including Workstations and servers. It is best for systems smaller than PCs like Games which use smaller memories so that Rambus' granularity advantage is a factor. For example, if you had a product that only needed 16MBytes of memory then that could be satisfied with only one 128Mbit Rdram chip while it would require 4 Sdrams if the 16bit wide chips were used or 2 Sdrams if 32bit wide chips were used. Rdrams also save pins which is a good thing.

But neither granularity or pin saving is a dominating advantage in the PC business and they will not overcome Rambus' weaknesses. Memory demand in PCs continues to sky rocket and Microporcessors and chip sets all the way back to the 486 found enough pins for a 64Bit data bus and they can continue to find the pins especially since pin count per package is growing also.

The flip side of the advantage of granularity and pin saving is that Rambus reads 16 bytes of data inside an Rdram and then ships them out at very high speed over a narrow, two byte interface to the chip set which then expands them back to 8 bytes and ships them over to the Microprocessor. This makes about as much sense as taking a four lane freeway and closing down three lanes for a short stretch but increasing the speed limit to 260 miles per hour on that stretch. Possibly you might be able to make it work but why do it? Sdrams just drive the 8 bytes directly to the chip set and it can do this easily.

RE: <2nd, that any short term fix would simply prolong the obvious>

There will be a short term fix to the current problem. I'm not predicting there won't be a fix and I'm absolutely certain that there will be one. It might even be a fix that is essentially free. I'm not saying that the fix will prolong the obvious. The lack of a fix is prolonging the process by which others come to realize that Rambus is a mistake. As long as there is no fix people just wait for the fix. After the fix arrives they have to actually start living with Rambus. That's when people will start learning.
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