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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: tekboy who wrote (7821)10/10/1999 6:23:00 PM
From: StockHawk  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
what evidence is there that TA produces good results "with any degree of reliability over time"?

tekboy, I don't know if that was a serious question or not, but if you are in fact interested you may wish to look up an article by Mark Hulbert which appeared in the New York Times in August of this year. He sites studies that have shown positive result through the use of TA. Most compelling perhaps is the experience of Value Line.

Most people are familiar with the Value Line Investment Survey and its long term record of beating the market using fundamental analysis (stocks ranked 1 for Timeliness have outperformed over a long period of time). In fact the track record of Value Line is one of the strongest arguments against the efficient Market Hypothesis, which states that no one can consistently and systematically beat the market.

Well, what most people do not know is that Value Line has also published a Technical Ranking every week since 1983 on every one of the 1700 stocks they follow.

From 1983 through 1998 their 1700 stock universe increased in value about 550%, but a portfolio of 100 stocks ranked highest on their technical criteria (adjusted quarterly) would have returned approximately 1300%. In fact their TA ranking system has beaten their much more widely known system of fundamental analysis.

StockHawk
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