heinz,,
i agree completely with your statements,,the long bond should be a big concern for the market it is at 6.19 and going higher the last time it touched 6.25 the internets tanked as well as the nasdaq,,my problem with this market is that i think it is made up of smoke and mirrors because of the indexes such as the nasdaq,,it is at an all time high and the long bond is at 6.19 percent and rising and that does,t show me that the market is not thinking rationally about intrerst rates,if they weren't going up in the near future the bond market would be alot closer to 6.0% if not under,,the reason that it is not is because the bond market is bigger than the equity market and much more affected by intrest rates and is telling us that they are going higher,which the market seems to be ignoring.in addition the market is looking to earnings and when you have big tech companies like xerox dissappointing that shows that the earnings front is not all that rosey and if a really high p/e company disappoints like say an ebay than watch out below.imo tuesday will be a big day for the high p/e companies with aol earnings,if they don't blow away the whisper i say all high p/e stox sell off big!!.look at yhoo with it's 50 billion dollar plus market cap on .14C eps ,okay they had a great report but didn't the market put that into it's stock price at 175 a share ?could you imagine when these comanies don't have 100% growth anymore ,,that will be the day they all go down and never,ever come back,,and that day will happen it is just a matter of when!!! |
