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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (67678)10/10/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: IceShark  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
Hienz, I realize the market is thin and internals look like shit, but suspect things will now continue up with everyone having jumped the unload gun earlier every year.

It is true that money inflows should dry up a bit as 401(k)s are getting maxed out and those contributions stop. But it seems in the last few years that people just kick in non deductible free cash once they are convinced the end of year tax loss selling is over. You are guaranteed 30% on it, after all. -s-

Tax loss selling is a fact, the specific issue is 31 October for funds. It is bullshit unless the fund has that as the end of their fiscal year. (Although, there may be an issue of funds trying to front run expected tax related selling from a timing/price standpoint rather than true tax date.) And pension and other strict tax advantaged funds don't count in this calculation since there is no tax effect. So how many funds do? I don't really have a clue how to quantify in an easy manner.

The only reason that this is any more than a parlor game is that a true sell off could initially be laid off to this old saw. In other words, sell off is unlikely to occur from here on out, but if it did start, that would be something to note.
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