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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

QCOM 174.01

-0.3%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: quidditch who wrote (2140)	10/10/1999 10:37:00 PM
From: Bux	Read Replies (2) of 13582

Clearly GPRS is in trouble. And the funny thing is it's getting toasted not by HDR CDMA but by itself! I find it telling that even the developers say it won't be ready for another year. I wouldn't be surprised if that date is pushed further out or the project is scrapped altogether. I have always suspected that GPRS and EDGE are mostly smoke and mirrors to help maintain GSM infrastructure sales. They are clearly not as advanced as CDMA HDR. Qualcomm gets no royalties from GPRS or EDGE even if they do get commercially deployed so this is a win for Qualcomm and reports of the poor showing of GPRS at the tele-conference might even explain some of the recent strength in QCOM shares as the picture becomes more clear to the investment community. It was never clear to me why ERICY's contractual deal with Q on the patent litigation and the infra would necessarily bind other GSM vendors/carriers, such as NOK and in Euroland the GSM carriers or TDMA. Plus, the lingering question whether ITU principles on non-discriminatory, non-monopolitic terms for licensing would, at the end of the day, pose a problem. The deal between E and Q doesn't bind the rest but the other significant players had already licensed with Q and E was the only significant player debating that they had significant IPR in Q's implementation of CDMA. Qualcomm has always been willing to license their technology on fair terms that are not monopolistic. That doesn't preclude QCOM from getting the gorilla's share of the royalties, it just means they can't be discriminatory and license willy-nilly terms, different for each license without justification. Of course some of this could be considered subjective but I don't see the ITU becoming a road-block here. A lot rides on the marketability of GPRS and EDGE since operators are making choices today based upon future upgrade options. Since neither GPRS or EDGE is available yet, operators have been relying on the word of those who are developing these technologies. Tero has assured me these are viable technologies that will be widely deployed but I have serious doubts and the fact that there is not much to demonstrate now can't put the carriers minds at ease. Time will tell. Bux

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