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Technology Stocks : PMC-Sierra (PMCS)
PMCS 11.650.0%Jan 25 4:00 PM EST

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To: SJS who wrote (2854)10/11/1999 12:49:00 AM
From: Beltropolis Boy  Read Replies (1) of 3818
 
steve.

well, that's exceedingly generous of you to namedrop me in the same breath as TD and bdzr, and while i'll take a shot at the question, i welcome them (or anyone else) to jump in and elaborate ... or better yet, correct me.

very, very broadly speaking <couch!>, i would say that AMCC and VTSS are more similar to each other than to PMCS (although i must admit that overall i'm not as familiar with AMCC -- intrigued, but not a shareholder). for starters, AMCC and VTSS each manufacture internally (bipolar/BiCMOS and GaAs, respectively), while PMCS is obviously, fabless; both outsource to IBM for CMOS (AMCC for SiGe too); both have traditionally focused on analog (physical media dependent) and mixed signal layer functionality and generate a significantly higher percent of revenue from SONET/SDH; both play in the automatic test equipment (ATE) arena.

from a competitive standpoint, PMCS derives a huge portion of their comm revenue from the ATM market, AMCC and VTSS much less so. they are the dominant supplier of ATM PHY solutions and lead in ATM IC market share (FY98 estimate of ~23%) followed closely by VLSI Technology with Lucent much farther behind. in particular, their forte has been in higher-layer digital functions like signal clock and data recovery; framing and mapping the SONET payload (whether ATM cells or packets); segmentation and reassembly (SAR); policing and operating and maintenance (OAM); traffic management; and ATM switch fabric. similarly, in the T1/E1 and T3/E3 market, PMCS is a top supplier of mux/demux, framers and HDLCs (high-level data link controllers); i don't believe that AMCC or VTSS play in this market or beyond framing/mapping on the board(?). (and i'll let TDozer tackle PMCS' DSLAM offerings.)

AMCC and VTSS, on the other hand, have historically been stronger in terms of SONET/SDH analog and mixed signal layer functions. i believe AMCC and VTSS are also several speed grades ahead of PMCS (and TranSwitch) -- as both have introduced physical media dependent (PMD) layer products at OC-48 and OC-192 speeds, and PHY layer products at OC-48 -- while PMCS has dominated OC-3 and OC-12 mixed signal and digital layers. VTSS, in particular, has been the prominent player in PMD layer components like photodetectors, and transimpedance and post-amps, and can provide a complete solution from optics to switch fabric. VTSS is also excelling in the Gigabit Ethernet and Fibre Channel markets. last figures i have show ~35% sequential growth in Q3, while PMCS has indicated significant revenues in this area in 2000.

competitively, one could also debate the merits of the fabless model, but i'll save that for a hard day's night....

of course, each of these companies is beginning to encroach on each other's board space. for example, VTSS introducing digital functionality (framing and mapping products) to complement their physical-layer components, and PMCS combining physical-layer components into their higher-layer digital functions. generally speaking, the competitive landscape is changing because CMOS technologies are advancing, thereby allowing high-level integration strategies that were previously attainable via bipolar or GaAs only.

furthermore, as you know, all have been actively acquiring smaller, niche players:

AMCC -- Ten Mountains Design (PMD layer) and Cimaron Comm (digital processing layer, SONET framing)

PMCS -- IgT (ATM traffic mgmt, switching and SAR) and Abrizio (switch fabrics for OC-48 to OC-192)

VTSS -- Vermont Scientific, Serano Systems (Fibre Channel and SCSI), and XaQti (GigaPower and TeraPower)

interestingly, now that i think about it, all three are also undergoing transitions away from a 'legacy' product base. AMCC with the military (Raytheon) and high-speed computing; both AMCC and VTSS with ATE (Schlumberger and Teradyne); and PMCS with its history of products outside of networking.

hope this helps,
-chris.
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