Bill,
Your thoughts are provocative, and deserve more attention. I'll buy the new Intel.
For this posting here are some my thoughts on Moore's Law:
MOORE'S LAW: THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE INFORMATION AGE
"Ultimately, Moore's Law, the driving force behind the information age, will yield to a force even more powerful than electricity, and that is quantum theory." In Visions, Michio Kahu had not expected we would reach the point one quantum mechanical limit until 2020. We have no alternatives available for mass production until at least that time frame.
SHIFTS TO THE INTERNET: THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE INFORMATION AGE
Intel's scientist's announcement could mean after our present surge in intermet equipment a slowdown in creative destruction throughout the hardware and software industries. The internet has now become a driving force of the information age. Yet, creative destruction in internet technology is limited since it is a communications medium. Paraphrasing the TV industry, creative destruction is the medium.
This shift driving forces behind the information age will negatively impact durable goods and trade, while positively impacting non-durable goods, the content providers. The net effect is questionable; yet, it appears to be a negative. (Perhaps in the range of 2 to 5 percent of GNP; a debatable guess.)
The benefits and costs of a communications medium are borne by the other producing sectors in an economy.
Estimating all the direct and indirect effects of the internet is beyond the scope of this posting, and perhaps poster.
Skeet
(Apprehensively neutrally positive on the market in general is the best interpretation of my indicators. I do not like the response last week of some sectors; especially, the internationals and large techs. I really don't know how I'll trade this week. It probably depends on those two sectors and the bond holding its previous low.) |
