Ynot: Interesting Posting from LU Thread distilling wireless:
(Has anybody read the Economist, "Telecommunications Survey"? It is wireless all the way)
---Lucent Technologies Inc.
Dow Jones Newswires -- October 11, 1999
WSJE:Convergence: A Guide To Cellular Research & Development
By David Pringle in London
Staff Reporter
From modest handsets to full-blown media terminals, that's where proponents of "third generation" mobile phones
say we're going. But to get there, a number of technological advances have to occur.
Basically, we're talking about a fortyfold increase in transmission speed. The extra zip will make it possible, for
instance, to view video clips with a handset. The International Telecommunications Union defines a
third-generation mobile as one that can carry 384 kilobits per second over a wide area and two megabits per
second in a smaller, defined area, such as an office block or a shopping center. Currently, most mobile systems
transmit data at 9.6 kbit/s.
Nokia Corp., Motorola Inc. and Telefon AB L.M. Ericsson are following similar technological paths, while
Microsoft Corp. is charting a different course. Here's a look at the technologies and target dates.
HSCSD
When: Late 1999
HSCSD (high-speed circuit switched data) technology will increase data-transfer speeds by at least a factor of
four. Allowing a continuous flow of data, the technology should be suitable for transmitting video pictures;
however, its top speed of about 58 kbit/s will place tight limits on image size and quality.
The Buzz:
Nokia says 19 European operators - including Telia AB of Sweden, Sonera Corp. of Finland and Orange PLC of
the U.K. - are planning to introduce HSCSD into their networks. But there is some skepticism about the technology,
which is already in use in Singapore. Says Justine Hays, principal analyst at the Yankee Group Europe: "A lot of
operators are going straight to GPRS, which is packet-based."
EPOC
When: End of 1999
The EPOC operating system will be one of the first full-scale systems to be used in a mobile phone. The Symbian
consortium, which includes Finland's Nokia, Sweden's Ericsson and Motorola of the U.S., designed the system to
make sure it won't drain phone batteries or overload memory capacity.
The Buzz:
The heavy hitters involved in Symbian make this a significant technology. But the system will face rivals such as
Microsoft's Windows CE.
WAP
When: Late 1999
WAP-based services will make their debut late this year. WAP - which stands for wireless application protocol -
is a language used to construct Web pages. Advocates of WAP say that HTML, the language in which most Web
pages are written, is too complex and graphics-oriented for devices with small screens, limited battery life and
low access speeds. WAP, in contrast, strips the page down to its bare bones, boosting download speeds fourfold.
Microsoft has shrugged off WAP, instead investing in microbrowsers that distill HTML pages. Still, some analysts
see massive WAP momentum. "There is not a major operator in Europe that is not backing WAP," says Ms. Hays.
Adds Olli Oittinen, vice president of Nokia's system marketing and sales: "There are close to a thousand
companies actively developing WAP-based services at the moment."
The Buzz:
In the short term, mobile-phone manufacturers may support both WAP and HTML. In the longer term, both
languages may converge into another new Internet language, XML.
Bluetooth Applications
When: Early 2000
Bluetooth, based on short-range radio technology, is a standard for wireless communication between electronic
devices in the same vicinity, such as mobile phones and printers. Bluetooth signals can be transmitted around
corners, removing the need for a "line of sight" between devices.
The Buzz:
Bluetooth has big-name backers, including Ericsson, International Business Machines Corp., Intel Corp., Nokia
and Toshiba Corp. Developers say Bluetooth will be inexpensive and frugal with battery power.
GPRS
When: Early 2000
Ericsson sees general packet radio services technology as the first step toward a wireless Internet - but it will be
an expensive one. The technology requires a data network to be laid on top of existing GSM networks. What GPRS
offers, though, is the potential to boost data transfer speeds tenfold. GPRS also promises to make more efficient
use of GSM networks than HSCSD: By transferring data in packets, it forgoes a continuous server-handset
connection.
The Buzz:
GPRS technology will coax a lot of e-mail traffic onto mobile networks, predicts Nokia's Mr. Oittinen.
Meanwhile, Yankee Group, a telecoms consultancy, warns that data-transfer speeds of more than 56 kbit/s aren't
likely to be seen early on, with the technology only reaching its full potential in 2002.
VML
When: Late 2000
Mobile phones will have voice-activated Web browsers, using voice mark-up language. Motorola, AT&T Corp.
and Lucent Technologies Inc. developed the technology, which will allow users to navigate the Web by verbal
command, eliminating the need for a keyboard or pointer device.
The Buzz:
The technology should be a hit for car applications.
Java Applications
When: Late 2000
Mobile phones will run programs written in the popular Java computer-programming language. Network operators
are likely to send small Java programs across the Internet to their customers' mobile phones.
The Buzz:
The technology will spur new services. "With a prepaid phone, for example, a Java applet might appear on your
screen telling you how much airtime you have left and asking if you would like to use it to purchase a CD instead,"
says Dominic Strowbridge, Motorola's technology-marketing manager.
EDGE
When: 2001
What EDGE stands for is enhanced data rates for GSM evolution. What it will provide is data transmission of up
to 384 kbit/s over existing frequencies.
The Buzz:
The technology will probably appeal to operators lacking licenses for "third-generation" frequencies. But EDGE
has limits: Transfer speeds deteriorate as the user gets further away from a cell, the fixed connection point, making
it less useful in rural areas.
UMTS
When: Late 2002
Third-generation networks will depend on universal mobile telecommunications system, a technology that allows
data to be transferred in packets as quickly as via fixed-line networks. Within a defined area, such as an office or
factory, speeds of 2 mbit/s will be possible; for a wider area, the rate falls to 384 kbit/s. Even at the slower speed,
the technology offers high-speed Internet access, fast file transfers and high-quality video.
The Buzz:
These capabilities will come at a price: UMTS requires a new backbone network and base-station subsystem
infrastructure. An operator in a major European country might have to spend $1.5 billion to provide UMTS
nationwide, predicts Yankee Group. For this reason, UMTS will likely be deployed selectively, starting with city
centers.
BRAN
When: 2003
UMTS will spawn the development of BRAN, or broadcast radio access network, technologies. UMTS will lead
to the development of very high-speed wireless networks within office blocks.
The Buzz:
Nokia estimates that these local area networks could provide speeds of up to 11 mb/s.
IP Era
When: 2004
Five years from now, all mobile traffic could be based on the cheap and efficient Internet protocol. By exploiting
the high bandwidth made available by UMTS technology, it should be possible to make good quality voice calls
from mobile phones using IP. It would involve transferring packets of data.
The Buzz:
In theory, complete IP networks would allow consumers to use their mobile phones to send video images around
the world for the cost of a local call. "The ultimate aim," says Motorola's Mr. Strowbridge, "is to have the world
united by a common Internet backbone."
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