Alex a great piece by Crudele at NYPost. The Labor Dept has
been stocked by old shoes of 50 years of Democratic
party Socialist tax and spend agenda.That is why AlanG
correctly distrusts them.
My brother in law is a widely traveled businessman and he
tells me:
"right now, whoever does not have a job is because he does not want to work".
Also
" the Big 3's decision to give workers "lifetime employment"
was the stupidest ever". In a downturn of the economy they'll be crying the blues again".
When my local shopping Mall puts out " a job fair ", you know we've run out of workers.
As I am talking to you I hear Kathleen Hayes on CNBC saying
how we are also running out of part time employees who are
looking for full time work.
So we are turning to immigrants. That would be great except
for what happened with many immigrants some time ago when
after promising under oath to the Immig & Naturaliz Service
not to put any of their future dependents on The Public
Dole, they proceeded to do just that.
This is one giant bubble. I think Alan G knows it and he is
just waiting for the right moment to pop it as gently as he
can. ( Get it? Pop it gently <VBG>).
His hand may indeed be forced by the arrogance of Wall
Street. I believe it will.
Wall Street needs to be hit across the forehead with a 4 by
4 to stop calling " great buys" every money losing co on the horizon.
(example Pepolesoft will make 1cent this Q and has just bought Vantive who has not made a penny ),
TA
Message #42657 from Alex at Oct 11 1999 5:40AM
RATE HIKE COULD COME SOONER THAN YOU THINK
By JOHN CRUDELE
------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOW stupid is Wall Street? That question is brought to mind by what happened to stock prices on Friday.
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its August policy meeting where it very clearly threatened to raise interest rates again if the stock market
continued to behave in an irrational fashion.
So how did the geniuses on Wall Street respond? The very next day they forced the most visible and most easily manipulated of all stock indices, the Dow Jones
Industrials, higher by nearly 113 points.
The Fed's nose has been tweaked by greedy professional traders - again.
Let's step back. This column has been saying for a long time that the Fed right now is primarily concerned about "asset inflation," which is a fancy way of referring to the
stock market bubble.
The Fed's very concerned that the paper fortunes being made on the bubble will start leaking into the real economy and drive up prices of things like homes, boats, cars,
gold and other amenities.
One thing leads to another in an economy like ours and eventually the price of everything - from a cruise to butter - shoots through the roof. That is the Fed's worst
nightmare - out-of-control inflation that destroys everyone's quality of life.
The Fed has issued veiled warnings about this many times before. Alan Greenspan has railed against "irrational exuberance." Other Fed governors have warned about the
bubble.
More recently the Central Bank has twice been forced to push interest rates higher. That was mainly in response to Wall Street's craziness, but also because of rising
prices of things like oil, gold and other commodities.
And then we have last Thursday's statement, which is as clear a message as any: The Fed isn't going to put up with Wall Street's greed anymore.
So what happens? Traders tell the Fed to go to hell and jack the Dow up another 113 points. Now Wall Street is not only greedy and stupid but also foolishly arrogant.
Why was Wall Street so bold last Friday? Because it wrongly thinks it has another five weeks or so before the Fed can do anything on interest rates.
The truth: The Fed can, and - because of days like Friday - probably will push rates higher before its next meeting, on November 16. The last round of rate hikes in '94
included just such an in-between meetings surprise.
There are reasons why Wall Street thinks the Fed's hands are tied.
First off, it doesn't believe Alan Greenspan has the guts to take any action that'll hurt Wall Street. Too many rich people with political connections would get hurt. And,
besides, why would the Fed finally show any nerve in fighting the bubble when it hasn't for years?
The government's labor figures released Friday also gave stock traders some false comfort. On the surface they showed the number of jobs declining by 8,000 in the U.S.
in September. That's supposedly good for stocks because rates will stay down.
But I'll let you in on a secret. I'm told Alan Greenspan has very little regard for government economic statistics. He's relying on private numbers, which, as I've said, show
that inflation is climbing.
The Labor Department actually takes two surveys of jobs each month. One relies on a relatively small sampling of employers. That's where the government came up with
the 8,000 loss.
Yet before the government tweaked that number for "seasonal adjustments" - like teachers going back to school, etc. - there was really a very worrisome increase of
630,000 jobs.
But don't get too bothered by that. When the government called homes directly, it came up with a gain of 139,000 jobs. Wait another minute. That figure - when adjusted
for the same season as the number above - deteriorated to a loss of 709,000 jobs.
Down 8,000 or up 630,000? Up 139,000 or down 709,000?
The only thing clear about Friday is that the Fed isn't going to be happy with the way Wall Street is behaving, no matter what numbers it's looking at.
nypostonline.com; |
