Heinz, we should have a sell off today, lets see if it picks
up any momentum.
Here is some interesting insights as to how important the
early Oct time window has been for turning points in the 90's and late 80's
here is definitely something in the air in early October,
specifically
within the first 10-11 calendar days. Remember back to October 2, 1987.
That was one of the most famous ones. It was the secondary top that led to
the 1987 crash low in mid-to late October. We decided to examine the first
11 calendar days of October over the past decade and here is what we found.
It is a pretty impressive record of market turns. In 1989 October 6-10 was
a topping of various indices. The Dow top was not significantly surpassed
for seven months and the Over the Counter top made at that time was not
surpassed at all for a year and a half and in the meantime, there was a
decline of 33%. 1990, October, 11, the low, never since approached, 1991,
October 7, six week low, then a few percent lower in October of 1991, then
never lower again; 1992, October 5, low, never lower again; 1993, October 7
was a secondary low after the September 21 low of that year. On April 4,
1994, the following year on that panic low, the Dow closed lower than the
October 7, 1993 low for one day, then never lower again; 1994, this is the
only year of the past decade where the first 11 days of October did not
appear to be significant in any way. 1995, October 10, there was a low
except for one day a few weeks later on October 26, 1995, the Dow has never
closed lower. 1996, October 10, the Dow has never closed lower after that
day. 1997, October 7, there was a top and then the Dow was down 15.6%
intra-day in just three weeks. 1998, should remain in everyone's memory.
That, of course, was October 8, that was the low prior to this last leg up
in the market. Today, of course, is October 8, Monday closes out the time
window on October 11. |
