How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 511.36

+0.5%

Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: PMS Witch who wrote (30540)	10/11/1999 3:11:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (2) of 74651

How much of a risk with strike 140 year 2002 msft call?. What are people's opinion on strike 140, 2002 call on microsoft? Everytime I look at that I worry about risk scenarios. I guess I can put in only what I can completely loose. Let me know your opinions on the following. By calendar year end of 99, msft will have 1.60 of trailing eps. If that eps grows 25% in 2000 to 2.00 and then another 30% in year 2001, then by end of 2001, msft will have 2.60. Give it a 55 PE, (on the low end of PE range); it could be at 143 Under this scenario, I will incur a 11 - 3 or $8 loss per contract. What are other opinions of the thread on cy 2001 eps and what will the PEs look like 2 yrs down the road? There are people on this thread who have said MSFT could be at 300 in 2 years. There are also folks who think it will be at 150 by Jan00. But there isn't too much basis for the prediction other than performance during the last couple of years.

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