DRAM Sold Out, OEMs Put On Allocation
By Jack Robertson, Electronic Buyers' News
Oct 11, 1999 (3:33 AM)
URL: techweb.com
For the first time in recent memory, DRAM from most major vendors has been placed on allocation, a clear sign to customers that the four-year era of ample supply and swooning prices has for now drawn to a close. Micron Technology Inc. last week broke the ice by uttering the "A" word, telling Wall Street investors that it is sold out of DRAM for the fourth quarter. And a number of other DRAM producers have placed OEM customers on allocation following the market's sudden U-turn from the oversupply situation that just this summer fed rivers of low-cost chips into the OEM channel.
Of the leading DRAM makers polled by EBN, only Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., the largest global producer, shied away from claims of allocated supply.
Avo Kanadjian, senior vice president of memory marketing at the company's U.S. subsidiary, Samsung Semiconductor Inc., San Jose, said the sudden tight supply has spooked the market so much that using the term allocation "only can increase the panic." Kanadjian said the DRAM market is under pressure from so many conflicting factors that at present, "it is difficult to get a clear picture."
Nevertheless, during a conference call last week to financial analysts to report its quarterly earnings, Don Baldwin, vice president of Micron Technology, Boise, Idaho, said the company "is on allocation across the board on all its memory products¥128-Mbit and 64-Mbit DRAMs, flash, and SRAMs. We're forced to turn away a large amount of business, and most of the other DRAM manufacturers are doing the same."
As the shortage continues, contract OEM prices are rising and are now above $10 for mainstay 8 X 8 64-Mbit DRAMs, up from $9 just a week ago and $4.50 in July. Spot-market prices have gone out of sight, although they have begun to level off at $19 to $20 for those 64-Mbit configurations in highest demand.
Lisa Dreher, memory product manager at Kingston Technology Co., a Fountain Valley, Calif., module maker, said, "DRAM allocation is likely to be short-lived as manufacturers ramp to full capacity and complete die shrinks. However, looking ahead, we may see some real allocation in the DRAM market next year."
For PC OEMs used to stuffing their boxes with DRAM capacities that would have required a second mortgage during the pre-glut years, the lack of fourth-quarter availability represents a marked change, even if suppliers did serve some advance notice.
"We were warning our customers for two months that the industry would be on allocation in the fourth quarter because of demand rapidly closing the gap with supply," said Jamie Stitt, manager of DRAM marketing at Toshiba America Electronic Components Inc., Irvine, Calif. "We're not surprised, and expect allocations to continue into the first quarter of 2000."
Jim Sogas, director of business operations at the DRAM division of Hitachi Semiconductor (America) Inc. in San Jose, said the current DRAM shortage should continue for another month before the industry is in full allocation mode. "But regardless of what you call it, the OEM customers know they're now on allocation," he said. "Every DRAM product across the board is sold out." |
