It appears the bit change LHG referred to is underway.
The following was posted by S&P on the SH thread.
It also appears the Temblor may come in at 14,400 - 14,500 as originally thought rather than higher. If we are now about 14,250 feet, and drill at say 2 - 3 ft/hr., we could be anywhere from a few to over 100 drilling hours away - after they resume drilling tomorrow morning.
Important Note: To keep S&Ps post in context, he was replying to someone concerned about another bit change.
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<< They are currently pulling out of the hole to change the bit.
I'm not sure why you said a bit trip... "doesn't bode well in my perspective".
You drill with a fresh bit. It digs some footage. It gets dull. You change the bit. Simple!
A bit trip is absolutely normal, and in this case I have heard that they are switching from the normal tri-cone type bits to a PDC bit.
Again, for the none oil&gas types out there, this is nothing unusual.
A tri-cone bit has (as the name suggests) three steel cones with "teeth" all around, that rotate as the bit is turned, grinding the rock beneath it in order to advance downwards.
A PDC bit has no moving parts, with teeth arranged on the fairly flat bottom surface.
No moving parts implies no bearings that may be susceptible to wear from both heavy use and high temperature.
In the right rock type, a PDC bit can drill very quickly.
The reason they don't use PDC's all the time is that they are very expensive. They typically drill very slowly in hard formations and chert will dull them quickly.
A little speculation on my part:
We are not into the Temblor yet, at approximately 14,250'. This is not a bad thing.
The original well prognosis called for the Temblor top at around 14,500'.
The VSP was interpreted such that the expected Temblor top was moved up by 500 feet to 14,050'.
I remember saying at the time, after talking to my more seismically proficient buddies, that the VSP was only as good as the interpreter, and 10 interpreters would likely come up with 100 different interpretations. Well, it appears that the particular interpretation that Berkley went with was one of the less correct ones (for whatever reason). Again, this is not a bad thing.
Does it mean we have a dry hole?
NOT AT ALL!
A single shot VSP at 14,000' is VERY "iffy". Especially so, when the exact lithologies and thicknesses are not known.
I have been told repeatedly that they are generally accurate only to 11,000' and then begin to get a little fuzzy.
IMO, a little too much faith was placed in the VSP.
I am personally very encouraged by the steady increase we have seen in the background gas readings. I am also personally sticking to the original well prognosis and am expecting the Temblor between 14,400' - 14,500'.
We should be drilling again by Tuesday morning, and who knows how fast they will go?
I remain extremely optimistic about CC (and 100% certain about ELH) and was a little PO'd that I was busy on Friday afternoon when we could have scooped up PYRX for $4. What a buy!
Be strong folks.
The roller-coaster ride has truly begun.
S&P >> |
