Decided to look up the good Mr. David "sorry about my bipolar disorder" Heger's actual record. Since 1 June,
when his employer started coverage of Q, we've had:
date action price
---- ------------- -------
1jun Accumulate 93.9375
21jun Downgrade:Maintain 130.5000
23jul Upgrade:Accumulate 154.6875
06aug Upgrade:Buy 147.7500
28sep Downgrade:Accumulate 193.6250
11Oct Downgrade:Maintain 222.5000
So if you'd bought Q on June 1, sold on every AGE downgrade, and held (or got back in immediately) on every upgrade,
you'd have missed out on 53 points out of the 128.5 we've gained since June 1, or about 41% of the increase. (Not
including the increased commission costs or effects of the spread.)
My head hurts thinking about trying to analyze him in a more sophisticated way - modeling a strategy of doubling up on
the upgrades, selling off half on the downgrades - but I bet it would be even worse, given that his upgrade to ACCUMULATE
on 23Jul immediately preceeded one of our bigger slumps this year. (Giving credit where it's due, though, his subsequent
upgrade to BUY on 6Aug quite nearly called the local minima, our last look back at the halcyon days of the 140's.)
Looking at this record, I don't think the guy is actively evil or manipulative, but is just another dangerously
overpaid numbercruncher who who labors under the delusion that his valuation spreadsheets actually connote some Higher
Truth, and that that Truth must be immediately relayed down to us mere mortals. "Program analysis" without any real
thought or reality checking - about as dangerous as pure "program trading".
What was it Gregg Powers said, way back in April sometime? Something along the lines of, "I have an expensive Bloomberg
terminal on my desk but I hardly ever use it to look at prices. The most important thing I do each day is to talk to
people: competitors, management, customers, and the like. That's where the price of the stock is really
determined." (GP, if you're out there, forgive my paraphrase.) Methinks that as a stock analyst, little David
Heger isn't fit to hold someone like Gregg's #2 pencil.
But of course since we all _know_ that, the blind blunderings and bellowings of AG Edwards actually work in
our favor. I'd be tickled to death if we got another noodnik analyst to drive Q down 30-40 points in a few days time, as
happened early last month. I'd be laughing myself silly as I backed the truck up to get another full load.
And I know you all would be, too.
-Rose- |
