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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.08

-0.8%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: J. P. who wrote (29120)	10/12/1999 2:42:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) of 99985

I think that though it may appear to be overly bearish that many of these posts are just stating the unhealthy internals of the market and not necessarily predicting crashes etc...at least not in the immediate future. I held off in posting my views lately due to a lack of time to get a good read of my own charts and other research I normally do. My weird shift work lately leaves me no time to do my usual DD and as a matter of fact I am getting ready to go to work again now. Warning to those that use me as an "indicator" or a jinx, I saw the surgeon today and they are planning on slicing on my knee again later this week which means I will be around to trade over the next couple weeks again. <ggg> I took a quick look at my charts as I was updating my site just now and I am starting to get reactions to some of my signals again. This tells me the pressure of the bounce from oversold levels is easing and the signals should start working again. I have short term over bought signals on some of the leaders of the sectors that led us out of the gutter like T, the DRG, RLX and NDX sector indexs etc. However as I look at the major indexes, even though I have short term over bought signals, the mid term cycles and relation to the forks shows that the pullback that will be tradeable may hold off for a week or so. It is confusing since I show that the OEX max pain is still between 690 and 695 and isn't moving much so I expect my original 692 target from a few weeks ago to still be valid. We have the dojis that Don mentioned and are at some key resistance points but I also have bearish forks being violated slowly and have good price movement in relation to many bullish forks so I went to the intra day charts and snooped around the OEX, DOW, SPX and NASDAQ and drew some hourly forks. They point to a pretty flat outlook for the near term. We may just drift around here for a while and churn. I found an interesting article on the Dollar but lost the link. It basically said that the banks change in gold policy was tied in to a shift of the world banks move away from the US Dollar and back to a gold standard etc due to fears of an US economy that runs deficits without having to account for them. When LTCM was cited as being able to collapse our market, the world took notice that only 4 billion in defaults could unravel the world's financial system and so they are bailing out. I too am worried about the wedges, resistance levels, internals etc but the cycles and historical strength of earnings season keeps me from going full hog short here unless someone big like INTC or MSFT miss. My cycles say we have more time mid term and we should just get a short term pullback soon. I am watching IBMs bounce here closely and an over bought signal on MSFT to see how much strength there is or isn't. I guess we will find out. Good Luck, I am off to work Lee

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