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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: Lucretius who wrote (68011)10/12/1999 9:14:00 AM
From: Defrocked  Read Replies (3) of 86076
 
Stocks will have to follow US bonds and dollar IMHO.
Unlike the rummy stock market, bonds actually have
"real cashflow" that must be discounted relative to
the receipt of new information. We don't tend to
ignore unanticipated news for long and actively try
to discount it in advance it's arrival.

Somebody's going to start pushing the sell button in
stocks sooner or later. After all, what the heck are
they discounting??? All the good news is factored in IMHO.
Corporate earnings growth will peak out this quarter and
its downhill from here. Bonds should provide a reality
check for stocks and a safe haven, eventually, but possibly
not before 6.5%. And even that might not be enough to
whack the Pollyannas along side the head as to relative
value tradeoffs. BWDIK.
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