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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising
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To: Biomaven who wrote (3763)10/12/1999 4:34:00 PM
From: PaulW  Read Replies (1) of 10280
 
Basically, I agree with your thoughts, with one possible exception concerning Prilosec. Keep in mind that the article said "as much as 15 percent better than Losec" so we don't know if the average is 2% or 14%. They probably will come out with at a very competitive price - maybe close the same - to keep market share - generics argue they can sell generic Prilosec in 2001, AZN says it is later so AZN will try to get it to the market early in case they lose the patent battle. If they can convert the existing population to the new drug then it becomes a question as to whether AZN will try to price it competitively.

Regarding percentages concerning generics in general, it seems that analysts estimate the first to market will probably grab 30% of the market at 70% of price (they have a six month exclusive right to the generic) - some analysts will use 10% and 70% to estimate earnings to be on the conservative side.
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