BMFM, I think there is no reason to stay long Apple at this point. If one really believes in a takeover then one should buy out-of-the-money calls, so as to limit the losses if either the takeover does not happen or the stock tanks after the takeover (other stocks of merged companies have done it lately).
On the other hand, the bearish outlook for this stock in the absence of a takeover is very strong. Earnings estimates are for a loss of more than $1 per share. For years now I have not met a person who would even mention the possibility of buying a Mac. Corporations don't buy Macs, Windows machines are making inroads in schools, etc., etc.
If one goes back and reads old posts on this thread it is always the same story. Some idealistic, well-intentioned folks keep holding this dog of a stock because they think Macs are good machines and they want to fight the Evil Empire. It will continue to be so. These people had a lot of advice and never listened. Same thing on the DEC, BORL, NOVL, COSFF threads. It's a pity OS/2 is not traded as a stock. It would be another great short.
So here is another way for just a few of these brave, idealistic Apple fans, who are tired of being poor: buy out-of-the-money puts on Apple. Sell them after the earnings announcement. With your profits, buy a case of Haut-Brion. Open a couple of bottles and make good use of the stuff. That will eliminate all feelings of guilt. |
