BB:" no exit "
>i believe we have put in a major top...
...yep; me, too.
I'll go further: after the initial, "panic" selling, we will have a laborious, "dead money drift" until QTR-4 '00; ie., a real 'bear market' - with sudden, violent equity rallies followed by relentless decay - just like the bond market has been experiencing for ~12 months. Collapse of the U.S. economic engine will cause massive unemployment, ripple effects in the rest of the world, which will come back to us as if waves on our beaches.
There will be no sector or global region to rotate to; bond yields will be wiped out; and, the real estate market bubble will burst.
...there will be no exit: we will witness the destruction of kapital itself.
This is it. This is "the big one", the end of an 8 year-long business cycle = "Cold War peace dividend". It's gone, baby - we spent it. We bought some good things (infrastructure, genetics, etc.) and we frittered some of it away on silly things (SUV's and DOT.COM's)
It will take ~3 years to get the U.S. economy back together again... the world will be a different place by then.
-Steve |
