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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Charles R who wrote (75291)10/13/1999 12:47:00 AM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (2) of 1578501
 
Charles,

Re:"OK, how do you explain the PIII ASPs? (retail prices are available from Pricewatch as you know)

IMHO, Intel had to make a choice - cede marketshare or drop ASPs. Data so far indicates that they have opted for the latter.

If AMD can stay a speed grade or two ahead, at some point, Intel's current strategy will stop working and come back to haunt them. If Intel can keep up or take the lead back on the speed grade issue, the current strategy would be the correct strategy."

Couple of thoughts.
I suspect Intel knew yields on Athlon were good and so slashed prices for the big OEMS not retails.
Also I suspect the market will spank them pretty hard for missing numbers and I see no way that they can afford to slash and burn high end prices in Q4 (they can in Q1 when cumine is majority volumes).

I see Q4 as a real challege - the high end is a relatively small space although contributing disproportionate profits. If they are not ahead in clock speeds by one or two grades then they must price reasonably.

Also AMD will have some 0.18 micron AThlons too and so we could see 750/800Mhz Athlons from AMD in november timeframe - remember they are now in production and have started sampling customers.

This quarter for Intel could be brutal depending on AMD speed bins. Seems to me Intel is stuck with large volumes of 600Mhz and below product - this is where i expect prices to be trashed and quickly. They have a real tight-rope with ASPs/bin splits//volumes etc to manage to meet or beat expectations.

regards,

Kash
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