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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: The Ox who wrote (52872)10/13/1999 1:51:00 AM
From: upanddown  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Michael

I saw an interesting table in the LA Times today showing expected YOY earnings changes in the S&P 500. It showed the top 15 and the bottom 15. Oddly enough, each one had three of our local favorites. APA KMG BR made the top 15 with expected increases of 1567%, 470%, and 213% respectively. The bottom 15 included RDC BHI MDR with changes of -100%, -90% and -77% respectively. I think one play may be those with huge earnings increases that they can also be expected to beat. Big Cap E&P's might be in the sweet spot since they would probably generate a lot of institutional interest with good performance.

Laggards I like would include RIG and VRC. Dont forget the poster boy of "beaten-down", TCMS, which lost 5 months of gain in little more than a day with the earnings warning. The number that jumps out here is that it sells at a price/sales ratio far below its peers, GLBL and HOFF. They are both well above 1 while TCMS sells for 19% of annual sales. GLBL and HOFF deserve a hefty premium because they make money and TCMS is operating at a slight loss but the premium they are getting seems beyond hefty. Problem with TCMS is that even the disappointing earnings won't be out for a month so this could be dead money for quite a while. Thing I don't understand is......if it is so inferior to its peers, why are its revenues rising much faster?

John
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