from a Smart Guy on yahoo> Q upward bound! The Action:
by: The_Rich_Janitor 42995 of 43008
Well, a bad day seems to bring out the skeptics. Some very important things to remember:
1) Q still has a lot of momentum behind it.
a) MM like Q and the fundamentals still tell us that this QCOM is cheap at these prices. That's right, I said cheap. Remember our math and remember that CDMA subscriber growth continues to outperform even the most aggressive analysts. 20% growth per QTR is holding strong - REAL Earnings - TODAY
b) Still a subscriber sale hanging out there
c) CDMA Conference in China this November
d) Mot, Nokia, Audiovox and Samsung CDMA terminal sales are skyrocketing
e) G* holding up strong and ready to burst wide open with potential profitability in 2000
f) Increased European buy in to CDMA (Philips, STM, Siemens, Ericsson, Vodafone, etc.)
2) If we go down tomorrow, I think a lot of it will be in the form of short trading and as you know, when the shorts start feeding, an upward trap is set. GS, SSB, and Lehman love it.
3) I don't think we will see the usual 20-25% drop in Q that we see 6-8 weeks prior to every earnings report. Let's not panic because we lost 10 when we were up 45 from 2 weeks ago. Intel will drag some of the high fliers down (I don't think that - $.02 was a big surprise to anyone), but remember that QCOM is a telecom stock first and foremost. A very different market with very different growth projections. Have yet to hear of any Telecoms that aren't surging upwards. Wallstreet puts different handles on different sectors.
****My prediction: Well, I got more today at 216. Could see a bottom tomorrow of 203-208 due to INTL and all the momentum suckers that will be shorting and covering margin, but it wouldn't surprise me if we finish the day strong (207-210). MM will jump in at anything below 205. Thursday will be an up day and we will be sitting at 240 by earnings announcement. JMHFO.
- Janitor
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