Excellent summation - but I'll disagree with you on just a couple of points. Mercury was getting their ass kicked on functional and regression testing in the windows space by SQA - I know because I used to do it. However, Mercury was extremely tough in Load testing, especially on Unix. The great play there would have been for Mercury to buy SQA and completely sew up the test tool market. Rational completely botched the chance to market themselves as the "e" company. Rational's strategy to acquire these tools and companies was basically sound, but it was very painful for us in the field. It eventually worked, but the hit to the stock was shocking and hurt morale.
As far as Visio is concerned, unless they have added functionality to it recently, I think it is a toy. Sure, it's low cost or free, but you get what you pay for. Rose reverse and forward engineers complex OO code allowing for code sharing and reuse, etc. Visio draws pictures, no real developer would be caught dead with it. It must have some redeeming value, though, if Microsoft wants it.
Finally, as far as Rational's future goes, I agree that it isn't one for very sexy and explosive growth. It is a good, safe place but not a killer. I still have shares myself.
I now work for Calico Commerce (CLIC) new IPO last week. Love it, and we closed first day of trading at $56! So I am very familiar with the companies you mentioned. Business to Business ecommerce is the place to be right now and the next few years.
As a funny side note, Calico earlier this year signed a large enterprise deal with Rational for the entire suite, including Load Test!! The world is just too small.
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