Since the bonds are yet to bottom, my opinion would be
that stocks have yet to make their first intermediate-term
bottom. More economic reports to come:
HIGHLIGHTS OF MARKET NEWS SURVEY OF US ECONOMIC FORECASTS
WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the
Market News weekly survey. The comment section presents the key
elements behind the median forecasts.
--
Retail Sales for September (percent change)
Thursday, October 14 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual:
Median Range Responses Sep99 Aug99 Jul99
Retail Sales +0.2% -0.3% to +1.0% 18 -- +1.2% +1.0%
Ex-Autos +0.4% +0.2% to +0.7% 17 -- +0.7% +0.4%
Comments: Forecasts for retail sales centered on a 0.2% gain,
suggest that consumption continued at a much softer rate in September.
Consumer confidence fell in September, though must of that decline was
in future expectations. The auto sector continues to provide some zip to
retail sales, though the pace of sales is expected to be down from the
2.5% jump in August. Ex-auto retail sales are expected to rise 0.4% in
September. Gasoline service sales are expected to remain strong as long
as energy prices remain relatively high. Apparel sales received a boost
from back-to-school sales and fall fashions, but seasonal adjustment
factors likely offset some of the gain.
--
Jobless Claims for week ended October 9 (change/level in thousands)
Thursday, October 14 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual:
Median Range Responses Oct09 Oct02 Sep25
New Claims -7/305 -12/300 to +3/315 6 -- +10/312 +28/302
Comments: Jobless claims are expected to fall 7,000 to 305,000 in
the October 9 week after rising a combined 38,000 in the previous two
weeks after dipping during Hurricane Floyd.
--
Producer Price Index for September (percent change)
Friday, October 15 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual:
Median Range Responses Sep99 Aug99 Jul99
PPI +0.4% +0.3% to +0.7% 18 -- +0.5% +0.2%
PPI Core +0.4% UNCH to +0.8% 17 -- -0.1% UNCH
Comments: Forecasts for September PPI point to a 0.4% rise, again
due to energy prices. The energy component is expected to remain
relatively high, though at a tamer pace than August's 3.7% jump. Food
prices rose 0.4% in August due to a drought, but hurricanes in September
alleviated this condition and USDA farm prices fell 1.0%. Outside of
food and energy, computer and car prices likely recovered from previous
declines, adding to gains in other components, particularly the tobacco
crop, which was hurt by the storms. Core PPI is expected to rise 0.4%
after a 0.1% decline in August. Analysts will also watch pipeline
measures after large gains in August.
--
Business Inventories for August (percent change)
Friday, October 15 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual:
Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99
Inventories +0.2% UNCH to +0.3% 14 -- +0.3% +0.3%
Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.2% in August.
Factory inventories were already reported down 0.1% in the month, but
wholesale inventories rose 0.3%. Retail inventories fell 0.3% in July on
autos (-0.6%) and apparel (-1.4%), but auto sales slowed in August.
--
Industrial Production for September (percent change)
Friday, October 15 at 9:15 a.m. EDT Actual:
Median Range Responses Sep99 Aug99 Jul99
Ind Prod +0.1% -0.2% to +0.5% 18 -- +0.3% +0.7%
Cap Util 80.7% 80.3% to 81.0% 18 -- 80.8% 80.7%
Comments: Industrial production is expected to be up only 0.1% in
September, as auto and truck production softened from a 12.8% August
jump, but remain strong. In addition, Hurricane Floyd had some negative
effect on factory production in the East, while utilities softened from
August. Capacity utilization is expected to fall to 80.7% in September.
--
Consumer Price Index for September (percent change)
Tuesday, October 19 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual:
Median Range Responses Sep99 Aug99 Jul99
CPI +0.3% +0.2% to +0.4% 9 -- +0.3% +0.3%
CPI Core +0.3% +0.1% to +0.4% 8 -- +0.1% +0.2%
Comments: Early forecasts for CPI point to a 0.3% rise overall,
with energy prices still rising. Core prices are also expected to be up
0.3%, as tobacco and airfares bounceback from declines in August.
Transportation prices are expected to retreat from their 0.9% jump in
August, while prescription prices should also lose some steam. Apparel
prices could be a positive contributor, as more expensive new fashions
were introduced, though back-to-school sales could provide some offset.
economeister.com |
