Paul Robertson, I don't know if the Fed can hold it together.
You said:
I completely agree. The whole thing is busting at
the seams. The big question is, are they, the fed,
going to be able to hold it together ?
I sense their presence. Once Europe opens, who knows ?
This is an extremely unusual situation for uncle Alan.
The overriding concern that I think he has now is to ascertain that
there is enough liquidity to carry us through Y2K.
Unfortunately though that goes directly against the burgeoning
evidence that we have a red hot economy that needs to be cooled
down.
My own personal data going back 6 months are very clear on this.
Everywhere I go by I see " help wanted " signs on the door.
So I know the next step is higher wages or flattening growth
both of which will kill this market.
The issue then simply is which of these two conflicting tugs will
Alan pursue?
My feeling is that Y2K will take precedence,( which I think it should
because having taken responsibility to be the world's bank via the dollar,
we have to make sure it is available in case there is financial instability
in y2k ).
That means that he will be slow in addressing the need for higher rates
to slow the economy.
And unfortunately, this scenario is unfolding during Sept,Oct, Nov.,
the worst investing months of the year.
I see more turmoil ahead which the Fed will not be able to control.
Gold will be the winner.
The only constant in this world over the centuries has been change.
As the world and the powers that be change, it is absurd to put
all your eggs the basket of one country as good as the USA
and it's dollar may be.
This is why wisely, over the centuries, people have bought
gold.
Somehow gold does not seem to change as much, <VBG>.
(PS The decline from $800 to 250 is irrelevant if you consider
the previous appreciation from $35/oz to $800/oz:
Better than YHOO or EBay,
: )
TA
Message #42830 from PAUL ROBERTSON at Oct 13 1999 2:48AM
Tunica,
I completely agree. The whole thing is busting at the seams. The big question is, are they, the fed, going to be able to hold it together ?
I sense their presence. Once europe opens, who knows ?
Paul
P.S. My tech work indicates a blast off to check out the highs once again. Bot more yesterday pm.
|
