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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.47

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Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (29375)	10/13/1999 1:56:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) of 99985

heinz : re: "IT capitulation bottom soon in the bond" I think you may be a bit too optimistic. The long bond at 6.20% did nothing to slow consumption or prick the equity bubble. The Fed has clearly been saying that those two things need to happen. The market ignored the Fed. The Fed does not like to be ignored. They have ways of making the market pay attention. I see the bond slide continuing through the end of the year, and a new range of 6.50-7.00% But this may just be wishfull thinking from someone loaded up on index puts. Why do you think we'll see a IT bottom in bonds this month? The only way I see this happening is if the CPI or producer prices is a pleasant (for the bulls) surprise. Given recent data on consumption and wage increases, I don't see how that can happen.

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