Once we get a 'list'
I'll set up a "watch page"
Here's an interesting cautionary post ..
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To: TWICK (28572 )
From: heinz blasnik Wednesday, Oct 6 1999 6:02PM ET
Reply # of 29378
Twick, what people also tend to overlook, is the fact that the whole 'net economy' outside e-commerce is dependent on the IPO window on WS remaining open. it's basically a pyramid scheme, whereby a new net company IPO's and then has the cash to spend for advertising on YHOO (of course that's a bit oversimplifying it, but just e.g.) - hence YHOO, one of the leaders, makes a profit as long as investors are prepared to bankroll this scheme. the same goes essentially for the 'pick-and-shovel' companies the analysts like so much: once the IPO craze fades, the demand for new servers and internet related applications will be dented as well. as for e-commerce, this is essentially the most cut-throat type of business one can possibly be in, as the competition is only a mouse-click away. once again, the nutz companies relying on advertising revenue streams from that quarter better hope that WS is prepared to continue to finance the mounting losses of AMZN et al.
have i mentioned the non-existent barriers to entry yet?
this week alone, 105 net-related IPO's are hitting the Street...this smacks of getting while the getting is good. as a side-effect this diminishes liquidity for the stock market as a whole.
one of these days, 'show-me' time will be on...on that very day, the IPO window will shut down.
i remain of the opinion that the net, while absolutely great for consumers, is a very tough place for making money.
now YHOO, AMZN, EBAY, etc., the current crop of leaders in short, will likely survive the shake-out when it comes and either continue or begin to prosper. however, i very much doubt that their current valuations will be sustainable once the reality check arrives.
in the meantime of course the stocks are great trading vehicles due to their volatility, but for an LT investor to buy at these prices takes a lot of faith...
regards,
hb
EOM ----------------------------------------------------------------- |
