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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising
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To: Biomaven who wrote (3769)10/13/1999 5:00:00 PM
From: PaulW  Read Replies (1) of 10280
 
Peter - Thanks for the reference URL. The new HMO law should be bullish for pharmaceutical companies in general. In addition, I think if ICE improved new drugs are priced reasonably close to the original brand they will do extremely well (in the case of SEPR royalty arrangements, I cannot think of a situation where they are not racing to get to the market before patent expirations - I could be wrong). If ICE drugs are priced competitively (not necessarily the cheapest) under the new HMO law, it will be interesting to see what the HMOs will do - will they insist on the generic and switch to the ICE if warranted (maybe in the case of Prilosec) but when there are possible serious side effects they might just act differently - I still go back to "as much as 15%" is not a bell ringer in my mind (was it one patient or what?) but under the new law, who knows what the HMOs will do. The entire thing is confusing - some old people are making decisions to take reduced dosage or no dosage relative to their medicine - choice between eating and taking medicine, eating wins. I still come out with the opinion that ICE will retain a bigger market share by historical standards after non ICE generics are on the market. If it is an additional 10% market share retention on a Billion dollar drug, it is significant even after price reductions to compete with generics.
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