Challo, sometimes during a bull market, eager buyers wait for a pullback to buy, only to miss out on a move as the pullback never materializes...i suppose in a bear market it may at times be the other way around.
imo stocks do not yet reflect the change in the interest rate environment properly. essentially we are still in complacent ga-ga land. however, the slide in treasury bonds does mean something. it basically means that the bond market regards the risk of inflationary pressures mounting as a serious concern. the Fed on the other hand, has barely acted as of yet, whether due to political pressure or for fear of instigating a crash is actually irrelevant. what IS relevant is that the bond market is delivering a vote of no confidence.
and if confidence in the Fed is waning, all financial markets have a real problem. judging from anecdotal evidence, analysts interviewed on CNBC for instance, there is still very little concern out there...in fact, the bull market mantra of recent years continues to be preached without fail.
to be fair, we have no conclusive proof yet that a bear market has indeed begun...some sectors are in one, others are not. but i agree with Mr.Barbera that the evidence is mounting by the day...
regards,
hb |
