Still on sndk--
1. They are profitable, so it's not just a story stock.
2. Their product is in the early tornado, as judged by the growth in sales and recently announced applications. A lot of this has come more into focus since June.
3. Growth is not dependent on the semi's sector. It will reflect continued inroads of flash into non-computer applications, eg., digital cameras.
4. Digital cameras aren't quite mainstream yet. One more generation and they will be.
5. You're right about the fear of sndk going into fabs, but not from capacity risk, I believe. The risk is execution. They are trying to do something they've not done before. But, this is just the step the Q took in the early years.
My conclusion is that we should be watching sndk and other non-volatile memory makers (eg., Sony, IBM, etc) from the gorilla perspective. The market remains small relative to the big gorillas, but it is beginning to explode and will be a multi-Billion-dollar market in 5 years. And it is discontinuous.
The problem of course is whether sndk's app will control the market?! That is not yet decided.
One other point--Remember in The Manual that they made the point that the time to buy is before the gorilla is annointed. Hold the candidates lightly, and drop them as they fail to gain in the sector. SNDK is the only pure play in this compact non-volatile memory sector. It is certainly a candidate to dominate the sector with its proprietary property.
(Of course, that doesn't give any advice on whether now is a good time to buy!)
Best,
JS |
