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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)?
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To: Joe Rizzo who wrote (2469)6/5/1996 1:52:00 PM
From: Young D.T. Nguyen   of 58324
 
Joe,

Of course I don't agree with your analysis and numbers. But I accept your
numbers and analysis from a bear standpoint. In summary, your analysis
are based on:

Revenue last 4 quarters = 509 mils (sale/price = 10.4)
Est. revenue next 4 quarters = 1200 mils. (sale/price = 4.4)

Sale/price above is based on current market cap of 5.3 bils. So where is the
down side? The upside is practically unlimited. I guess you just see the glass
half empty, I see it half full.

Can you give me one example of a company in IOMG 's revenue class that
can match or exceed this performance past 2 years? (See my $1000 challenge
in post #2070). I can name you hundreds that are far more expensive and are
still getting more and more expensive.

IOMG mgmt said so far 2 millions zips have been sold, and capacity for 1996
is 5 millions. For our own interest, we must accept these numbers and try not to
expect more than what the company says. In my calculations and opinion,
these numbers more than justify current price. Longterm investors are well
served to keep shorterm expectations reasonable. Nothing can move stock
price better than big positive surprises. Also, nothing can kill stock prices like
negative surprises.

So I take your estimates to be the reasonable expectations: 1.2 bils revenue
next 4 quarters, maximum of 5 millions zips drives sold in 1996. Zip disk tie ratio
around 2-3. Margin around 4-6%. Probably not too many Jaz drives/disks sold
in 1996. And Ditto sale not worth mentioning.

Now let's sit back and wait for the surprises. Regard.
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