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Non-Tech : Dorsey Wright & Associates. Point and Figure

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (1018)10/14/1999 12:13:00 AM
From: Ms. X  Read Replies (1) of 9427
 
I love that word betwixt.

I think in this market situation it is more prudent to be bearish than bullish. The odds are with the market going down than with it going up at this point. Therefore, I'd rather lose the chance on a rally than bet too much here and lose a lot more if the market does take another tumble.

It isn't often that the NYSE BP goes down that far but I'd say that the lower 30% is doable. What that does to the SPX et al I don't know but the action has been quite extreme. The market doesn't trade like it did in the past. It damn near trades like an internet stock so we have to take that into consideration. Much like knowing a 100 point move in the market, either direction, is normal movement. Anything less is hardly worth an eyebrow raise. If that is the case than a 180 move down is an 80 point down day. Does that make sense? I discount the 100 points on a psychological level. I'm not referring to the charts.

The SPX has retraced almost all of its current gain on the 5pt chart. Big move down but still in support level. I'd guess, which is not a good thing but for conversation purposes, it will bounce from here and create a lower top. What it does from there I won't guess.

Last year the Dow created a base and was all over the place doing so. The NYSE BP reversed up for a short time and the DOW did rally a smidge (I'm going from memory). Then the NYSE BP reversed down. The first reversal up was short term but the second time was the charm. My point is we may get the same thing but a little later in the year. The NYSE BP is not in the mood to reverse up and I think it wants to settle a little more towards the lower 30's before doing so.

Hey, fine by me. I'll have a buying party! I guess my prediction of buying like a loony bird on crack on October 15th was a tad off. You still love me anyway... right?
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