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I've read your much earlier post on the value of the home building industry. You analysis seems good to me. FWIW, Mr. Pink also likes LEN as a value play, and at significantly higher prices. The industry seems to be unloved because of the current and anticipated future FED rate hikes. New home stats also dropped a bit, which I guess supports the fears of the investors. All that said, I see that several of the companies have dropped pasted their 52 week lows. Unless inflation goes ballistic and the Feds push the rates way up, these stock will find a bottom and turn. As cyclicals, they will be darlings again, at some point. I think one key indicator are the unemployment #'s. As long as people are gainfully employed, and the job market is tight, salaries will raise and people will buy houses. A lot of the new houses in California are not for the first time buyers. Builders are targeting the trade up market. My wife's coworker invited us to a housewarming get together last week, to show off her $650,000 new home. It was elegant w/ modern architecture, reasonably spacious, and one of 20 or so in a new tract of land. Each house is unique in architecture. These are not the typical row houses, where every house on the block looks identical. There will probably be another 50 or so built in the near future. There is a golf course (being built), a club house and a pool, all within 5 mins walk. The husband is a manager of something at IBM, and she is a computer programmer at where my wife works. She recently quit her job to raise their 2 infants. My point to all of this is that there are a lot of people with decent jobs and salaries, and these folks will continue to be buyers of new houses. The CA housing market is hot. I heard an estimate the other day regarding the growth of 200,000 tech jobs in silicon valley in the next 10 years, and that there is only 100,000 projected new houses to be built in that time frame. As to the markets in the other states, I can't say. I bought a quite a few shares of LEN at 17-1/2. I like to add to the position, but not until it bottoms. Any guesses? I remember ASYT from last year at about this time. I missed the bottom by 9-10 points, and sold out 10+ points from the top. I still made a few schekles, but better timing would definitely improve results.
Chester |
