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QCOM 174.45-0.1%3:24 PM EST

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To: Boplicity who wrote (44601)10/14/1999 9:46:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik  Read Replies (3) of 152472
 
Regarding bond yields -- the most recent "commitment of traders" report (and this does NOT mean commitment as in "institutionalized investor" ...) indicates a huge portion of the "smart" money is long bond futures, and a huge portion of the "dumb" money is short bond futures.

The way this is determined is as follows : when all futures trading accounts are opened, they are "coded" as either "spec" (speculative) or "hedge" accounts. Spec would be people like me, hedge would be accounts like Salomon Brothers' bond trading desk (used to be called Plaza Clearing. Not sure what it is called now ...)

Also, the commitment of traders report (COT) actually divides the "universe" into a total of four categories :

large spec
small spec
large hedge
small hedge

The numbers I just saw a day or two ago (I think COT is released weekly) (and, sorry, but I know that the link has expired by now), had all the correct allocations (and trends in change from the previous report periods) to indicate that the "morons" (temporarily) running things in the bond market should be "punished" soon.

We shall see ...

Jon. (still long more Sept. 2000 Eurodollar CD futures contracts than you would probably ever believe).
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