GZ.. another puzzle..
I think your chart is great but in this co-relation lets try to super impose the corporate earnings from the same period and now, also GDP growth , you may be little surprised to see what that co-relationship reveals..
Next.. look at this one, we say the economy is overheating, yesterday I had some guests over one is a PhD from Cambridge and trade arbitrage, the other is a soft ware programmer and makes software for trading the third is also a trader, I asked htem this simple question..
If economy is overheating at 3% brisk rate where is that growth coming from... according to experts 15% of the economy is Tech economy, and 85% is the old economy, the 15% tech economy is growing at a brisk rate of 30% whereas the total economy is trading at 3% rate, so in actual terms isn't it so that the old economy is deflating instead of overheating, if the total economy growth rate is only 3% than the cement and mortar economy is actually shrinking by 1.5%.. fwiw
Yesterday as I was jogging in the park this Idea came in my mind, I thought to ask Zack he was quite curious but last night the 'trade gurus' who come and sit with me to exchange pleasantries and like to get a feel of things will quite surprised, they had a great time.. we all enjoyed a great laught, comparisons some time of different periods and product cycles need certain inputs which is no visible and that is one problem.. your chart is great I will write on this surely and try ot make comparisons if I can get the data of corporate earnings and GDP .. |
