ABET REPORT: first "instant gratification" online lottery technology; will they grab a sizeable chunk of a $100Billion + Worldwide Industry?
FOUR UNIQUE THINGS ABOUT ABET I LIKE:
ú Very low float apparently (see below)
ú Quick bet/instant results lottery system (patents pending) should encourage replays (like slot machines).
No waiting to find out if you won. Most unique lottery anywhere. In 1997 worldwide lotteries were over $125 BILLION, I was told. $86Billion outside of North America
I can't overemphasive how significant the instant gratification part is....to me that is the key to additional revenue
ú Company has "Pay for Play" and even a "Free Play" system in areas where online gambling is not sanctioned. Prizes like luxury cars will be awarded and the company claims they will makes good revenue from advertising revenues. If so the entire world is their market niche.
ú Planned 5% or more of profits to go to charitable organizations; in turn they will allow promotion on their websites to drive a whole different class of people to the 649.com site. It is also socially responsible.
WHY I STILL LIKE ONLINE GAMBLING STOCKS FOR 2000 and beyond
ú "Financial Times", a highly respected publication predicts this will be a $10 Billion plus industry by 2002
ú An aging population can gamble without leaving the house, taking the money that they would have spent to travel to areas with gambling and betting it online; what could be more convenient? Rather than spend $500 on airfare or travel, why not just spend it online? Gamble anytime.
ú The publicly traded gambling stocks have been volatile and are at a low level now and perhaps poised for a run in the near future.
See streetdice.com for a list of all i-gaming stocks. Notice the chart of the sector.
VERY LOW FLOAT:
About 500K shares currently, and outstanding of less than 20 Million
PRICE: About 65 cents
INTRIGUING TECHNOLOGY:
ABET is different than any other online or non-online lottery I know of. It offers INSTANT gratification, on the same basic concept as slot machines or other casino games. You can bet and then find out instantly if you won and
you can play again immediately. To me that is much different (and should ensure greater revenue) than buying a few tickets and waiting up to a week to find out if you won anything on a traditional lottery.
ABET has "patents pending" technology (filed June 24, 1999). The patents cover "Method and Apparatus for Conducting Instantaneous On-line Lotteries", according to the June 29 Press Release. If they could lock this up, it would
be quite significant, they think.
THEIR FIRST GAME:
The first game (with many more games to come) is 6/49 which is very popular in Canada. It sounds similar to Keno to me. The CEO pointed out that Alberta's population of 1.2 Million
did lotto revenues of $3Billion alone. You will go to 649.com and place a bet on 6 numbers out of 49 and find out instantly if you have won? and you can instantly play again, even if you or someone else win the $5 million jackpot (which will be insured by a major insurance carrier), I'm told.
Special incentives are also planned to keep you at the site longer?."site stickiness".
You can also play up to 5 games at once (again like slots) and keep a personal database of favorite numbers that can always be bet?smart!
ON-LINE LOTTERY IS A GREAT CHOICE? LITTLE COMPETITION
There are few on-line lotteries, but lotteries are VERY popular worldwide. More than 86 Billion in lottery revenues came from outside North America ($55B from Europe alone) and about $41 Billion from N.A. in 1997, according to statistics told to me by the CEO.
Computer and Internet growth is exploding even in countries like China, and the company will likely have Video terminals in public places for those who don't have access to the Internet. Needless to say the potential is quite huge, but the public terminals are not planned for the immediate future.
PRIZES:
There are awards for 3 of 6, 4/6, 5/6, and of course a planned payoff of $5million on 6/6 numbers. They are thinking about a free play for 2 of 6. The Jackpot, of course is going to be backed by a reputable insurance company or companies to insure payoffs. Also transaction software to assure that all will be tracked and paid properly is first class, I was assured.
More details from the company are immeninent, I'm told.
ODDS:
The fact that there are only 49 numbers makes the odds considerably higher than many state lotteries.
Approximate odds (as they were told to me...and also published by the Canadian Lotto agencies):
6 of 6 from a 49 number pool: 1 in 13 Million
5/6 of 49: 1 in 55,400
4/6 of 49: 1 in 1,033
3/6 of 49: 1 in 57
"FREE PLAY" ALTERNATIVE:
Also, there are FREE lotteries planned that cost players nothing. Major prizes are funded by advertising revenues, so all can play even when Internet gambling is not sanctioned.
OPERATING SOON:
The website is now open at 649.com and the lottery software, designed by MindQuake will be in final beta Public testing soon. Private beta is essentially done and public beta will begin in about a week or two, I'm told. The CEO expects the site to be fully operational in a few weeks.
MARKETING: (essentially far along at this point...hopefully more details soon)
The plan in effect right now is to place 649.com banner ads on strategic high traffic gambling sites and purchase key words on many search engines worldwide to assure exposure and "hits". The Europe and Asia markets are going to be highly targeted as their on-line gambling laws are more wide open and they gambled more at lotteries than North Americans. In 1997 for instance, lottery revenues in Europe alone were nearly 30% higher than all of North America.
GROWTH:
As stated in their Aug. 27th release, "649.com intends to grow by opening additional on-line games and acquiring and licensing proprietary on-line gaming technology".
Also in their press release is the statement made that the respected
"Financial Times has estimated that the Internet Gaming market will
yield annual net earnings of US $10.2 Billion by the year 2002".
MANAGEMENT:
Lawrence Burbidge is President and CEO. He worked 15 years for a large
Canadian Trust. He advanced to level of Executive Vice President
overseeing the Mortgage Banking and Advisory Services business unit
which had a portfolio under management of $5.5 Billion and a staff of
250 employees.
FULLY REPORTING PROGRESS:
The shell they merged into has a SEC reporting deadline of Feb. 1, I am told. They expect to file the Form 10SB well in advance. Meetings with the lawyers have begun.
DISCLAIMER AND CONCLUSION:
ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN DD. The above info is mostly taken from Public Press releases and an initial conversation with Mr. Burbidge. Obviously I can't guarantee it's accuracy but have no reason to doubt any of it. While I was impressed by the CEO and the unique game plan compared to other gambling companies, there are always risks that should be considered. I believe the on-line gaming sector, which is in a lull right now, will come back strong late this year or in the year 2000, which, imo, makes this a good time to speculate with part of your risk capital here. Too many people that can't afford to travel or are too old to do so or would rather take the money they would have spent on hotel and airfare and gamble on-line.
Again, the respected "Financial Times has estimated that the Internet Gaming market will yield annual net earnings of US $10.2 Billion by the year 2002". And most of this will occur outside North America, so the global niche these companies have is as big as it gets.
Let's keep DD-ing this. I am not sure how timely this stock is, but feel it has real potential. Please keep on your radar screen, as major events like the opening of the public beta site soon may attract sudden interest.
Good Luck,
DAVE |
