Dan, et al,
Sorry, almost forgot to post last week's GMI bit.
On 10/7, the Barron's GMI was 390.60, down slightly from the previous week's 394.94. With the POG up significantly to 323.25 (10/08), the ratio was 1.21, again the previous week's 1.28. The ratio one year ago was 1.39, yet the POG was 298.70.
The ratio continues in the range of values that suggest, based on the data referenced in post 10, a substantially higher GMI within a year. However, it has been in that range for more than a year.
More importantly, the continued low GMI with the POG up substantially during the past two weeks suggests to me that the market doesn't yet believe the new gold market conditions are real. That is, it doesn't believe that the carry trade has been fatally wounded or that it wasn't a significant factor. We will see.
Cheers,
Larry
The drop in the ratio this week even though the POG moved up significantly, makes me wonder if the market is
skeptical about the action of the European Banks. I hope it is a healthy skepticism. I notice that Auger, Mr. Elliott
Wave, is looking, in the near term, for move up in the prices of stocks followed by a new low.
Cheers,
Larry |
