Experts warn of slow deterioration in services
JIM ABRAMS, Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, October 13, 1999
sfgate.com article.cgi?file=/news/archive/1999/10/13/national1409EDT0680.DTL
[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]
(10-13) 11:09 PDT WASHINGTON (AP) -- Repercussions from Y2K-related computer problems could extend well beyond Jan. 1 in many countries and involve the United States in humanitarian and environmental crisis relief, a CIA official said Wednesday.
Lawrence Gershwin, the CIA's national intelligence officer for science and technology, listed Russia, Ukraine, China and Indonesia as among the countries most vulnerable to serious millennium bug disruptions.
In illustrating lack of preparation in some places, Gershwin said members of Indonesia's national electricity board recently told a local newspaper that they can watch what happens at midnight in Australia and New Zealand and still have six hours to make plans.
Gershwin, speaking to the Senate's special Y2K panel, said the risks vary from country to country: Russia and Ukraine face dangers in their nuclear power, gas and electric power industries; Latin America is likely to see some disruptions in telecommunications, public health and social welfare; and some Asian countries could see problems in railroads, ports and medical services.
Y2K problems could arise from breakdowns in computer systems that read only the last two digits in a year and interpret 2000, or ``00,' as 1900.
Even the best-prepared nations, including the United States, Britain, Canada and Australia, could feel some side effects from disruptions in other countries, Gershwin said.
The United States is unlikely to see interruptions in financial markets or oil deliveries, he said, but foreign Y2K-related crises ``have the potential to involve U.S. military and civilian components in humanitarian relief, environmental disaster recovery or evacuations.'
James Moody, president of InterAction, a coalition of development and relief agencies, said Y2K failures in some development countries have ``the potential to seriously disrupt essential services in health, communications, banking, transport and public safety ... with humanitarian crises arising as a result.'
Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., who heads the Senate Y2K panel with Sen. Robert Bennett, R-Utah, said that ``in the spirit of self- preservation, we are chiefly concerned with the potential for cascading failures which could land on American shores.'
European markets that depend on gas delivers from Russia's Gazprom could be affected by locally severe gas shortages in Russia or Ukraine, Gershwin said.
Bruce McConnell, director of the World Bank-funded International Y2K Cooperation Center, said the main Y2K problem in many countries will not be short-term power or phone outages but more long-term deterioration in basic services.
``The most significant risk Y2K poses is not localized technology failure, but a degradation in the performance of the connected relationships among electronic devices, procedures, people and organizations that together make modern life workable and efficient,' he said.
Gershwin said public responses that could make technological difficulties worse include hoarding, heavy bank withdrawals and the buying of guns to ensure personal safety. |
