BGR, re: faith: your's is touching...
1) i hear that OPEC will start cheating any day now since crude crossed $14/bbl.so far i see no evidence to that effect. they have something good going and they know it. why cheat?
2)the BoJ knows very well that it is nonsense to supply liquidity that is not demanded by the market place. all it would achieve would be a debasement of the Yen, and i don't think that's high on it's priority list. talking heads all over the world still haven't gotten what's what with Japan...
3)inflation in the Euro zone is heating up same as everywhere else. the ECB will raise at it's next meeting.
4)productivity growth is a mirage...it's largely confined to the computer manufacturing sector, where the productivity increases have been so large as to distort the overall data.
i agree though that B2B internet business is a major positive factor for the future. so was the automobile, radio and airplane in the 1920's.
5) could be...again, this is something that lies in the far future. at the moment technology represents 5,7% of GDP, no more, no less. it's growing fast, but it's importance is generally over-estimated.
yes, the bond market will over-react both ways. which is why you better get used to higher yields down the road. however, the bond yield has traced out a giant rising wedge from the October lows, as have the stock market and the dollar. all these wedges imply an eventual retracement of the whole move.
you're celebration of 'the gold short squeeze being over' comes way too early...the jury on that is still out. imo the short squeeze hasn't even begun yet, as the shorts are unable to get their hands on physical metal for delivery. we're just shaking out weak longs.
once again, your faith in the Fed is touching...and misplaced.
good luck.
hb |
