Great value, most here will write. I believe very much in the long term future of this company and the industry as a whole but have written here that it is very risky to chase any stock upward--the potential reward verses the risk is not prudent "DD." I have been, of course chastised for this but, hey, with a pulp mill-addled brain I can take it. (Um....what is that other kind of smoke I see drifting above Saltspring sometimes, anyway? <g>)
When to buy? Two buy points:
1. Last fall, when the stock (JDSU, Toronto Ex.) was trading below $25. Then, gloom and doom was everwhere; now, complacency rules. Or,
2. Some time in the future when Mr. Market is unreasonably gloomy and knocks on your door and offers JDSU at better value. Not now though, because Mr. Market is positivly euphoric about this stock. And for good reason, yada, yada, bandwith doubling/tripling, yada, yada. Waiting when all this yada is going on, however, requires a great deal of patience.
I, of course, will contend this is the better way. I will cite value/growth investors like the classic Mr. Fisher who swears by this approach. Others will write, 'it's all in the momentum man, the stock has to be much much higher in 2 or 3 years so why worry about a 20%, 30%, 40% or more drop which probably won't come anyway. Furthermore, while Todtman has been chilling his heels waiting to buy more JDSU, he could have made grand paper gains at $50, 60, 70, 100, 150....etc.'
Take your pick. I think in the end it all comes down to "What are the rules by which you personally invest?"
Ciao,
David Todtman |
