jiggy (#1631) and Mo Chips (#1646)
1. Opinions are fine; debate is welcome. A few months ago, I (and others on this forum) were engaged in a debate with Carl Johnson. Carl and I were both mature enough to identify ourselves, state our motivations and ultimaterly to agree to disagree.
2. Putting your 'opinions' and John Hall's statements in the same category is entirely unfair. John is simply restating (ocasionally expanding) his company's official position. He is engaged in corporate communications. INTC is obliged by SEC rules to disclose information which is material to the investment community. While ALL companies spin the news in their own best light, I have ALWAYS found INTC to be particularly truthful in their communications. You have no such obligation!
3. I expect INTC's earnings to rise in Q2 and for the remainder of this year, even if revenues are flat. INTC has essentially said this!
4. While there is a legitimate argument about when the new INTC products (MMX et al) and NT-driven upgrades will affect EPS, worldwide demand for Pentium and Pentium Pro PCs is rising NOW! INTC has repeatedly given bullish forecasts for PC growth in 1996. I, therefore, expect revenues will rise measurably this year, but probably not significantly in Q2.
5. Merrill's semiconductor analyst, Tom Kurlak, has often been wrong. Just a few months ago, when INTC was trading in the mid $50's, he was predicting the stock would drop into the $40's. This was wrong. Last week, just after the analysts meeting, when the stock was trading in the low $70's he recommended the stock, predicting the 12 and 36 month targets of $90 and $120 respectively. Will these predictions also be wrong? Will they be understated? Time will tell.
6. Just for the record, I am a long term investor. I believe INTC's prospects are exceedingly good-long term. Having said this, your interest rate argument has some validity, short term, for the market as a whole. Should interest rates rise, INTC will weather the storm better than most companies, in my opinion. The stock will not be immune to some downward pressure, however.
Zack |
