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To: John Pitera who wrote (69015)	10/15/1999 8:07:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (2) of 86076

JP, I think the markets are all telling us that the number will be significantly higher than the .5% consensus. Looking at Bloomberg's consensus table of 44 economists, I see 30 at .5 or higher and 13 at >=.6 with 4 brave souls at .7%, the highest estimates. So you can see the distribution is skewed higher. The Sept gain for the JOC Index of Ind.Prices was 3.2% or around 40% annualized. The JOC Index of Petroleum Prices rose 7.7% or which is around a 100% annualized rate. It would be a rare occasion indeed if bonds, currencies, precious metals and stocks were all simultaneously wrong. After all, they are not discounting a future event as the month of Sept. is behind us.

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