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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 34.63

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To: Paul Engel who wrote (90272)	10/15/1999 8:27:00 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (3) of 186894

Re: Way to go AMD !!!!!! Agreed - AMD isn't there yet. But lets look at recent events and Q1 and Q2 estimates. Recent events: AMD viper chipset - rock solid and on time Intel camino chipset - late and buggy AMD .25 Athlon - meets most optimistic Q3 schedule and volume(350K) Intel coppermine - delayed until this month What if Dresden comes on line? Max is 6,000 wafers/week * 300 die/wafer * 13 weeks/quarter. If by Q2 2/3s wafer starts at 2/3s yield productin would be 10 million copper Athlons/quarter - add in 5 million K6plus chips from Austin and AMD could ship 15 million CPUs in Q2. The copper .18 Athlons should bin out at 850MHZ to 1.1GHZ. AMD would also pick up some of the chipset business. Intel would lose chipset and motherboard business. TI announced its DDR PC1600/PC2100 memory controller yesterday. Doubled or better memory bandwidth will boost Athlon performance next year clock for clock (though it doesn't seem to need it) The less expensive DDR (compared to Rambus) will be an additional boost to AMD's sales. The above scenario is the most optimistic possible, but coming anywhere near it would yield billions in profit for AMD. Dan

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