Voltaire, a couple of weeks ago you asked me the following question:
<< Is it your opinion we are in for an huge imminent downturn?>>
This was my answer:
<< No. I do not think the chances of that occurring are more than about 1 in 6 or 8. I believe that negative changes in fundamentals such as inflation, interest rates, or the dollar would have to happen to make such an event probable.
I simply felt it was an interesting comparison between conditions in 1929 and today. There are other obvious ones that I am sure everyone is aware of.>>
Since that, the long bond has gone from about 6.13% yield to 6.35% this morning; the dollar is getting slammed against the yen, and also now weakening significantly against both the euro and the pound; and this morning's PPI increase was roughly double what was anticipated.
Add to these fundamental factors the fact of a significantly overvalued market in the big caps, Fed and Y2K worries, and in recent weeks a subtle change in market psychology, and this mornings sharp S&P futures sell-off is not really surprising.
Greenspan's comments may have been a minor catalyst, but no more than that, although I am sure he will get a lot of the blame.
All of your bs about the "houses" and what they will and will not "allow" will not save this market today. Fundamentals of low inflation, a strong dollar, and low interest rates have drivven this market to heights that would have been considered insane a few years ago. Now, they seem to be reversing. They will continue to drive the market in the long term as they always have, for good or bad.
I am reminded of a recent post of yours about how the uninformed would sell yesterday morning, only to realize by today's close how they had been "had" again. Well, somebody has been "had", but I don't think it was yesterday's sellers.
The market may go down heavily today, bounce, and come right back up. OTOH, it may continue on down to a crash. At this point before it opens, no one knows. Certainly not me, and certainly not you, in spite of your notable efforts to predict precise swings from day to day.
I only know the odds of a major market correction of 20-30% are higher today than in the recent past. And bear markets have not ended, they have only been in hibernation.
Sorry for the long-winded post.
Good luck to all of the investors, speculators, and traders who have followed you and your advice so religiously.
BP |
