redherring.com
[an excerpt]
EPOC STORY
The number of cell phone subscribers worldwide is expected to reach nearly 500 million by 2002 -- up from 194 million in 1997 -- and to exceed PC sales by 2004, according to IDC. (Hence the need for cell phone etiquette; see "The Ringmaster.") The forecast assumes that businesses and consumers will turn more and more to wireless telephone carriers and handset makers for their data and computing needs. Symbian, Red Herring's top private company of 1999 (see the profile in June 1999), is counting on it. A joint venture of Psion (OTC: PSIOF), Motorola (NYSE: MOT), Ericsson (Nasdaq: ERICY), Nokia (NYSE: NOK), and Matsushita (NYSE: MC) that many see as a threat to Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Symbian began licensing its software platform to phone manufacturers this spring. Powered with Wireless Access Protocol (WAP) microbrowsers and Psion's Epoc operating system, the phones support alphanumeric paging, email, Internet browsing, and, in some cases, synchronization with PCs.
Symbian has licensed Epoc to hundreds of manufacturers, developers, and wireless service providers. Instead of acting as a second operating system, Epoc integrates with the wireless telephone's kernel -- the basic, real-time operating instructions that manage a cell phone's voice, transceiving, and battery functions. Epoc-based phones cost around $400.
While wireless phone makers like Ericsson and Nokia storm the online data world, the companies that manufacture personal digital assistants (PDAs) are scrambling to keep pace. In May, 3Com's (Nasdaq: COMS) Palm Computing division began shipping its Palm VII, a wireless, Internet-enabled PDA that comes with substantial data storage and a larger screen than the new crop of 3G wireless phones have. But its $599 price tag (more than twice that of previous Palm models); data transmission rates of just 8 Kbps; lack of voice communication services; and use of text-based, low-bandwidth "Web clipping" technology instead of the graphical WAP microbrowser may prevent its widespread adoption.
As for silicon technologies, Ericsson is proposing Bluetooth, a short-range wireless technology that can connect cell phones, computers, printers, and more to wireless and wire-line networks. (The same technology is also being advanced by more than 200 other companies.) Bluetooth uses common, unlicensed frequencies of radio spectrum typically used by high-speed wireless local area networks and bar-code scanning devices. The technology is built on a microchip, which incorporates tiny, integrated transceivers.
BYTING BACK
The first iteration of Bluetooth was released this spring. Its backers already are predicting a wave of Bluetooth-enabled devices in the third and fourth quarters of this year, though even they admit that widespread production is two years away. Bluetooth achieves two-way data speeds of up to 1 Mbps at a range of 10 meters; Ericsson is working on a version of the technology that will support the same speed at 100 meters.
Because Bluetooth's system-on-a-chip technology, like Symbian's Epoc, obviates the need for the Windows CE operating system currently in use by many wireless handheld devices, Microsoft isn't among the technology's supporters. Instead the company has teamed with Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) to form Wireless Knowledge, which offers Revolv, a service that allows access to enterprise computing systems, email systems, and the Internet from wireless devices. Revolv is scheduled to be available by summer's end and initially will be sold by Bell Mobility, a Canadian wireless carrier.
Microsoft's chances of parlaying its dominance of the PC operating system market into the wireless arena are far from assured. Symbian has an alliance with Sun (Nasdaq: SUNW), which will add Java-based applications and functions to the Epoc OS in order to compete with Windows CE's myriad features. The Palm VII uses its similarly feature-rich operating system, Palm OS, and its HotSync technology for email.
CELLULAR DIVISION
"Nobody is going to dominate this market -- it's too complex," says Joe Jasin, a partner with the I.C.E. Wireless Group, a consulting firm. "People who use the phone a lot and need limited data resources will gravitate to the smart phones. People who need more information and less phone communication will go for the wireless PDAs," he says.
When -- and if -- 3G will really take hold is anybody's guess. But this isn't a case of one brave company trying to jump ahead of the pack by developing revolutionary technology. Every cell phone and wireless device maker, along with virtually every carrier, is stampeding into the unclaimed territory. |
