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Technology Stocks : Stock Swap

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To: Filbert who wrote (16761)10/15/1999 8:09:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance   of 17305
 
*AV*--I am still concerned with VEBA too. They have already handled this situation very poorly when the merger announcement was released. I get the feeling their attitude was "we will dump at any cost" since they want to walk away. That fear let the market makers eviscerate the stock. VEBA is in the process of being taken to the cleaners. they could have easily divested themselves of WFR through a secondary offering. Look what happened to the recent LTXX follow on offering this past week. They dumped a good deal of stock on the market, to the point that 29X its average daily volume traded, and the stock went up for the day.

So, VEBA could have found a better way to do this. Also, VEBA is branded a liar in my book for denying, not once, but twice, the German newspaper rumors that they were going to dump WFR. VEBA is being punished right now.

The other bad side is that any suitor could conceivably accumulate 5% of the company shares on the open market before declaring their intentions. That would bring the total up to more than 75% of the shares.

The big question is why no one has stepped up to the plate yet, vocally. Is it behind the scenes time, with cigar smoked deals?

Anyway, I have to look beyond the games and intrigue and hope that the acquirer will allow the remaining 25% of the shareholders to keep stock in the new company and not structure a deal like INTC-DSP which was all cash. The bottom line is that WFR was in the crapper during the industry downturn when fabs were running half empty and no new fabs were being built. Now we are in a recovery where the fabs are full and new fabs are being brought online, not to mention the start of the 300mm conversion.

END OF WFR STUFF

I never meant to be the preacher on the pulpit here. Our discussions on Stock Swap provided valuable data for me as well to research some stocks I would not have come across on my own, and to highlight stocks to steer clear of. We even had some great personal discussions and joking around.

When I went off on this venture (due to job dissolution), I provided information and newsletter to all that wanted it for awhile and tried to keep up with the thread. It pains me that such a great group of people let things die down here. I just hope they found a similar location to create another homogeneous community environment. Heck, I would love to know where it is, if it does exist, so I can go there and converse with old friends.

The newsletter has consumed a good amount of time and the rates are going up again to meet the revenue demands placed on the venture by my family. But I do answer all pmail here and come back as often as I can to see what is going on. I know it is tough to pay for something that was free before but it did not stop me from answering pmail here. I also tried to give the newsletter away free here by making the special offers of 1 free subscription for every 3 subscribers brought in. I offered it nowhere else, to the best of my recollection.

I wish we could revitalize this thread and get back the community. I also do not have a problem with sharing information after an embargo period. What hurts the most is that days like today (VECO and MIPS) somehow do not get the exposure they deserve. We devoted a good deal of space to VECO in this morning's issue and we were as strong as we could be on monitoring this and looking for the positive outcome of the Ion Tech merger. It resulted in a 34% gain for the day, all of which was achieved after the open. This is unlike the rise in prices we see prior to the open.

And finally, the newsletter has not stopped me from answering questions here. I just do not get here as timely as I was in the past. And I may share things with readers prior to mentioning it here. That is just business.

Even the response on WFR yesterday, with the explanation, paid off today, since WFR was up $0.50. It is unfortunate that the author of the note yesterday did not write me on the implications of the VEBA-VIAG merger and comments. they might have exited with a minor loss and re-entered now. WFR is worth more than $18 but we cannot predict the results of an earthquake or some uncommonly harsh and stupid comments from VEBA.

AV
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