Re: General Last Mile Investments
Thread,
Hey perfect time for me to throw in my post. Having been on vacation for awhile, I've been out of touch with the thread also. I have plans to get all caught up soon too. But I wanted to contribute something now.
I have done some very quick updates on about a quarter of the companies I follow. Sorry if I am breaking up any topic by butting in my humble investor opinions of these particular last mile investments. Most I have a small position in, a few I don't. Overall, I'm VERY light in equities right now. I took a lot of profits during the August highs. So I've been waiting for a substantial market correction to boost my holdings. Lately I'm getting very excited.
If anyone has any further comments/opinions on any of these or other last mile type investments, please post. It's getting to be shopping time now.
MikeM(From Florida)
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ADC Telecom (sym: ADCT)- Now this company intrigues me for a lot of reason. Their mission statement is pretty clear. They are a last mile investors dream date. I really got interested in them for their cable telephony Homeworx product. Then HDSL. And now they just got Saville Systems for a steal. I was hoping a market correction would take them down before establishing a position. But I may be waiting in vain.
Alcatel (sym: ALA)- They appear to be the leader in DSL. It's certainly not a pure play though. As I said before, my main problem is they are based in France. But I like very much their recent statements about having completed their positioning (i.e. spending) plans and now are rolling up their sleeves and are going to make some money. So I'm nibbling now.
Antec (sym: ANTC) - Still my favorite last mile play. They have everything a cableco needs to upgrade to HFC and just about every cableco is their customer (including the granddaddy, AT&T). They are getting hot recently because investors are discovering their ability to light up fiber (a la Harmonic Lightwaves), but I still think the market overlooks their cable telephony expertise via their Cornerstone investment/connections.
Channel Commercial (sym: CHNL) - This one is getting ridiculously undervalued. So much so the company announced a buyback recently that was not just for PR. On my daily 5 mile stroll around the neighborhood, I can't take a step without looking around and seeing a CHNL product. Best of all, half the products are for telcos, the other half cablecos. They win either way. I'm hoping a big equipment company picks them up. But even if not, they are still going to produce results. The biggest problem it has? It's a microcap.
Cienna (sym: CIEN) - Afraid I don't know the latest on them. I'm guessing the price is moving up and down so much on rumors of buyouts, then they fade away. I just bought them as speculation during the Tellabs-Cienna debacle. I figure if TLAB was willing to pay something like $80/share, it must be a screaming buy at 20. I know what they do (DWDM experts), but don't know much about their current product positioning or execution abilities. I probably should know more. It is just a speculative holding for me anyway. So far it's worked out well. Hope someone on this thread has some current comments.
Cisco (sym: CSCO) - Well this is one I don't follow to closely because it's buy and hold for me and Chambers is about the sharpest CEO out there in the data world. I don't even know what the latest is on them yet. I just hope they aren't spending too heavily on packet voice over the public Internet. That's the only thing that bothers me about Chambers.
Dycom Industries (sym: DY) - If not for the recent thrashing it took because of a lone individual questioning DY's accounting practices, DY stock price would be on a plateau around the 50 - 60 level. Nothing is wrong with their positioning or execution as far as I can see. Their vision is pretty simple and that's been taken care of a long time ago. They are in the right place at the right time, but the comments by Howard Schilit has really hurt them. Sans Howard?s comments, DY's growth rate is extremely impressive. Both top and bottom lines.
International Fibercom (sym: IFCI) - A brain/brawn pick. Well, well. This company deserves a scolding. They are perfectly positioned to do great things, but first time they get the ball, they fumble it. Funny thing is, they are so cheap, it did very little damage. Usually news the likes of which they just announced, would give a tech stock a 50% haircut. But it really did little damage. It's still hovering in the bargain price range. The AT&T business will do wonders for them if they don't fumble the ball on it.
Globespan Semiconductor (sym: GSPN) - Anyone know what the heck happened to this one? It moved from a 110 to 53 while I was on vacation. I can't remember the full details now, but they have a Lucent connection. And some kind of Paradyne connection. I thought they were in pretty good company. I'm surprised it has sold off so quickly. Was this just a general market sell off type haircut?
LHS Group (sym: LHSG) - Considering the actual cost of making a voice or data connection is a very small piece of the overall expenses (billing, marketing, etc. is by far the largest part), I figure you can't go wrong with purchasing this billing services company in a badly beaten down sector. Once Y2K scares are over, I'm guessing investors and customers will flock back to LHSG.
Lucent (sym: LU) - Another one I don't follow to closely. It's a buy and hold for me (I own it indirectly via my former Ascend position), so I don't know much about it's current product line or execution abilities. It would be nice to hear some other last mile investor comments.
MRVC (sym: MRVC) - A former LAN expert that is positioning themselves towards in the MAN and WAN sectors. So it got me very interested. But while doing my DD, it moved from 6 to 24. Mainly on the excitement generated by the likes of HLIT and JDSU moves. You see MRVC has fiber-optic components too. I should have known perception was more important than reality and got in at 6. Now I don't know what to do.
Nortel Networks (sym: NT) - I never had a problem with Roth's vision. Obviously he is positioning Nortel to be a leader in optical networking. Smart move IMHO. But I still am concerned about their execution abilities. But the market seems to like what he is saying about where they will be in the future.
Ortel (sym: ORTL) - Another JDSU and HLIT play. Again, when they were selling at book, I should have took a position knowing they had laser expertise. They have had tremendous troubles on the execution side, but perception counts more than reality in the 6-12 month time frame.
Qwest Communications (sym: QWST) - As I posted upstream, the trashing of the backbone guys got good and heavy as usual. I just feel that QWST is the technology carrier's carrier leader and will do the best when the backbone guys come in favor again.
Tellabs (sym: TLAB) - Well apparently TLAB may be stumbling slightly. I believe they are having problems with their product line with the exception of their bread and butter product, the TITAN. Being from Florida, this has a lot of meaning to me. I read somewhere TITAN is the, "cockroach," of telecom equipment. Gets into everything and manages to keep multiplying <G>. An ace in the hole for them, IMHO, is their cable telephony product, Cablespan.
Tetra Tech (sym: WATR) - A brain/brawn pick for me. I still feel their CEO is very machine like and is very interested in making money. But for last mile investors, it's a tough one to call because this division (telecommunications infrastructure) makes up only a third of the company. If they remain true to their execution abilities, this one should do well. It's still relatively cheap at these levels.
Westell Technologies (sym: WSTL) - It's my only semi-pure play DSL bet. I'm hoping their connections with some large telcos puts them on the map. As a buffer, they stumbled onto a teleconferencing product that apparently does well for them. But I don?t think the market puts any value on that aspect. |
