Where can I find some shares to short? Maybe I can just send out a press release, promise to intend to begin negotiations, plan a demonstration, plan a second and third generation short of a derivative, even though I have not found the original shares to short and derivatives are not available, with an unnamed strategic joint venture partner (hey A@P, that has your name on it), and hope that the "SEC AND NASD [will not] REVIEW AND [will not make me] ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY" of the shares I short.
Details follow.
Troy
<<C3D plans to demonstrate these technologies in Silicon Valley, USA in November 1999>>
One would think that with such a grand demonstration between two and six weeks away, they would already have a date, time, place, etc., and that it would have been included in the announcement. Me smells a "delay" or "reascheduled" or some other hype avoidance.
<<it has conducted a successful public demonstration of its revolutionary Fluorescent Multi-layer Card (FMC) and Disk (FMD) optical data storage technologies at the Dan Hotel, Tel Aviv, Israel and at its laboratories in Rehovoth, Israel.>>
Was the public invited or were the cleaning ladies at the hotel while the room to the door was open (thus making it public) the only "public" anywhere around? Even though I have never been to Israel, I should probably just accept that the "Dan Hotel" in Tel Aviv is the kind of place where those in the know would go to see such miraculous technology displayed.
Just what does "successful public demonstration mean"? Does it mean that people from the company did not no show so that they could label the event a success? Does it mean that the event was successful or that the technology was successful?
<<reducing the cost per byte ratio in some cases by ten and hundred-fold. >>
Well, which is it? Ten fold or 100 fold? Or did they mean 110 fold and just not know how to say it right? Quite a big difference.
<<New Card & Disk Technology Reduces Cost and Size While Increasing Storage Capacity Up To 2,500 Times That of Current Systems>>
Let me see if I have this right: Capacity goes up 2,500 times and cost comes down "10 and 100" times?
If 10GB today costs $300, the cost is $30 per GB. 2,500 times as big (25TB), at the same relative cost would be $750,000. 10 times lower would be $75,000, 100 times lower would be $7,500. I doubt it.
<<Its ClearCard, for example, will hold up to 10 gigabytes (10,000 megabytes) of data on a credit card sized carrier - compared with the approximately 4 megabyte capacity of current "Smart Cards".>>
This must be where the 2500 times claim comes from. Combining the 2500 times bigger with "10 and 100" times cheaper means that the 10GB card will be 25 "and" 250 times more expensive than the current 4MB card. I'll just bet that there is huge market for a "smart card" costing only 250 times more than today's smart cards.
<<gigabytes will replace megabytes as data storage's common currency," >>
Are they talking about RAM or a hard disk replacement. Until I read this, I thought it was about a "new" multilayer hard disk. Is anyone aware of any hard disk available today that only has megabytes rather than gigabytes? Maybe the density claims are based on measurement against the old 10MB hard drives since they seem to think that MB are hard drive "common currency."
<<C3D intends to commence negotiations immediately with several strategic joint venture partners and expects to begin production of the first commercial devices within twelve months>>
Classic.....BS hype language. Notice that it says begin "production of the first commercial devices" and not "commercial production of the devices." Reminds me of the word games played by SOLV management before they went from $30 to 1/8.
What's up with the "strategic" JV partners. Maybe they just don't want unstrategic JV partners. More HYPE.
"Several"....I smell a convertible debt offering. Best reason in the world to short it.
Even more to the point, if they have not yet even begun discussions with anyone about commercial production, how could they possibly have a basis to claim any quantifiable cost reductions? "Speculation: a guess, estimate, or bet with little or no basis in fact."
<<* a 20-layer FMC ClearCard-ROM in the form factor of a credit card having up to 10GB capacity;
* a 10-layer FMC ClearCard-WORM (Write Once Read Many) in the form factor of a credit card having up to 1GB capacity;
>>
If a 20 layer card has a 10GB capacity, why does a 10 layer card only have a 1GB capacity? Now I'm not a math genius, but 1/2 of 10 is 5, not 1.
<<The planned second and third generation cards and disks will have capacities up to and exceeding one terabyte (1,000 gigabytes). RAM versions of the disks and cards are also planned>>
Great word that "planned." I planned to be a billionaire when I was a kid. Wonder if I can sell stock based on that.
I am guessing that since RAM versions are only planned, there have no current technology for RAM versions. No hard drives coming anytime soon apparently. This might also explain why they are currently only talking about ROM and WORM: they have not quite figured out how to write, delete, rewrite, and read from a multi layer card.
Don't they know that all you have to do to change ROM to RAM is change the attribute switch in DOS? Oh, heck, I should have patented that before I told them. <gg> |
